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id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pv_box m_p ov_hi"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bw_750 fl"> <h1 class="pv_title_2"><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="site fr"><a href='/'>首页</a>><a href='/gqmq/'>国企·民企</a>><a href='/gqmq/czd/'>财·知道</a></span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/gqmq/czd/">财·知道</a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">日本经济复苏放缓　美?；ぶ饕宄勺畲蠓缦赵?/span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2018年07月11日 09:52 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新华网</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社东京7月10日电财经观察:日本经济复苏放缓美?；ぶ饕宄勺畲蠓缦赵?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者钱铮马曹冉</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">今年上半年,日本一些重要经济指标出现萎缩。但专家普遍认为,日本经济温和复苏的态势并未改变。由于美国贸易?；ぶ饕寰俅肟赡苤苯踊蚣浣由思鞍ㄈ毡驹谀诘娜虿盗?下半年日本经济面临较大外部不确定性。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">经济数据不够理想</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">据日本内阁府发布的修正值,日本今年一季度经季节调整后的实际国内生产总值(GDP)环比下滑0.2%,按年率计算下滑0.6%。这是两年来日本经济首次出现负增长。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">日本经济出现萎缩的主要原因是内需不振和出口增速放缓,并且日本政府解决通货紧缩的努力也收效甚微。总务省统计显示,今年1至5月,除生鲜食品外的核心消费价格指数(CPI)环比仍在下降。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">贸易方面,受向亚洲市场智能手机相关产品出口下滑等因素影响,今年1至5月,日本对外出口额虽仍保持同比增长,但涨幅较去年明显缩小。此外,国际能源价格上涨带来原油、液化天然气、石油制品等进口额攀升,导致日本今年前5个月中有3个月出现贸易赤字。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">经济运行不够理想也体现在企业信心上。日本央行7月2日发布的6月份企业短期经济观测调查(日银短观)显示,日本大型制造业企业信心指数连续两个季度恶化。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">温和复苏态势未变</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">尽管上半年一些经济指标不乐观,但日本官方和专家对日本经济温和复苏的整体判断并没有改变。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">日本内阁府在6月19日发布的《月度经济报告》中维持对日本经济“正在温和复苏”的基本判断,并认为“当前劳动市场环境在不断改善,薪资水平也在缓慢提高,随着各项政策效果显现,经济温和复苏势头有望持续”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">伊藤忠经济研究所经济学家武田淳表示,出口数据和个人消费数据是拉低第一季度经济数据的主要原因。但这只是短期现象,并不会长期持续,预计第二季度日本经济将会企稳回升。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">农林中金综合研究所研究员南武志认为,第一季度日本经济负增长并不意味着日本经济已到达拐点。日本经济依然处在扩张周期,用工紧缺问题依然突出,第二季度经济恢复增长是大概率事件。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">三井住友资产管理公司首席经济学家宅森昭吉认为,虽然受美国?；ぶ饕逭哂跋?部分大企业信心恶化,但总体来看大企业设备投资计划良好,形势并不像看起来那样严峻。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美国是最大外部风险源</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">展望下半年经济运行,多数专家和机构认为,日本经济复苏势头有望延续,但美国政府的贸易?；ぶ饕寰俅胧侨毡揪玫淖畲笸獠糠缦赵?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">日本综合研究所6月份发布的《日本经济展望》报告预测,今年下半年日本经济增速将高于潜在经济增长率,预计2018财年(截至2019年3月31日)经济增速为1.1%。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">不过,日本经济这一轮复苏很大程度上得益于全球经济的整体复苏,而现在美国政府不断升级贸易?；ぶ饕寰俅?很可能给世界经济和日本经济带来负面冲击。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">日本综合研究所的报告指出,如果特朗普政府对进口汽车加征25%关税,可能直接造成日本出口减少约8000亿日元(约72亿美元);如果算上对汽车零部件、材料、运输等相关产业的影响,规?？赡艹?万亿日元(约180亿美元)。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">此外,美国宣布退出伊朗核协议并重启对伊制裁,进一步推高国际原油价格。由于日本极度依赖原油进口,油价持续上涨将对企业业绩和个人消费造成影响,阻碍日本经济复苏。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘小源 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" 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