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id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">全国金融工作会议闭幕后，人民日报刊发系列评论员文章，提出“既防‘黑天鹅’，也防‘灰犀?！保鹕缁岣鹘缍浴盎蚁！钡墓刈⒑腿纫?。相比大名鼎鼎的“黑天鹅”，“灰犀?！闭庖幌喽阅吧母拍罹烤怪傅氖鞘裁?？有哪些典型的此类事件发生过？研究“灰犀?！蔽侍猓缘鼻胺婪痘饨鹑诜缦战丛跹钠羰?？记者走访相关专家，试着为您作出最新解读。</p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="/upload/resources/image/2017/08/07/1922310.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2017/08/07/1922310.jpg" title="1121439789_15020626292981n" alt="1121439789_15020626292981n" suffix="jpg"/></a></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“灰犀?！?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">与人们熟知的“黑天鹅”概念一样，“灰犀?！笔且桓霾袄雌罚诠獗惶岢霾⒂τ靡彩墙改甑氖?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">2013年1月，美国学者米歇尔·渥克在达沃斯论坛上，针对大概率、影响巨大的事件，首次提出“灰犀牛”概念，这个大胆而新颖的观点立刻触发社会学界尤其是人类决策与判断研究领域的极大兴趣。2015年，伦敦商学院知名教授迈克尔·雅可比基于渥克的提法，首次发表了系统阐释“黑天鹅”到“灰犀?！鼻魇蒲荼涞穆畚?，该文在国外刊载后被翻译引进，这也是“灰犀?！笔状纬鱿衷谥泄笾谑右?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">随后的2016年，渥克经过整理和研究，出版了一本颠覆人们既往认知的著作《灰犀牛：如何应对大概率?；?。渥克提出，“灰犀?！敝饕该飨缘?、高概率的却又屡屡被人忽视、最终有可能酿成大?；氖录?。她一针见血地指出，我们把大量时间和精力用在那些会对我们心理和情感造成冲击但发生概率极低的事情上，因此没能注意到那些发生概率极高、应该提早预防的事情。如果我们正在寻找的是“黑天鹅”，那么我们就不可能看到“灰犀?！?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“黑天鹅”可怕，“灰犀?！币部膳?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">被大多数人选择性忽视，错失最好时机，导致极其严重的后果</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">也许很多人会好奇，为啥米歇尔·渥克偏偏选中“灰犀牛”这个概念呢？</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“灰犀牛并非严谨的学术概念，而是对概率大、冲击力强的风险的贴切比喻，代指没能及时阻止本来有能力、有机会阻止的灾难。”恒丰银行研究院执行院长董希淼介绍，灰犀牛体型巨大，本不该被忽视，但正因为其貌似愚笨粗拙，才让我们低估了它的风险，疏于防范。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">生长在非洲大草原上的灰犀牛，身躯庞大，给人一种行动迟缓、安全无害的错觉，从而时常忽略了危险的存在——当灰犀牛被触怒发起攻击时，却会体现出惊人的爆发力，阻止它的概率接近于零，最终引发破坏性极强的灾难。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“概率大、破坏力强是‘灰犀牛’事件最重要的特征?！敝泄缈圃航鹑谒醒芯渴抑魅卧罩赋?，“灰犀?！笔录姆缦掌涫岛苋菀妆环⑾郑幢淮蠖嗍搜≡裥缘睾鍪?，或者将其当作一种正常的现象来认可或接受，以至于错失了最好的处理或控制风险的时机，最后可能导致极其严重的后果。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">曾刚指出，从国外经验看，“灰犀牛”事件往往都是破坏力极强，一旦发生，对经济社会的负面影响很大。这一方面是因为“灰犀牛”风险的形成往往牵连甚广，要有效防范，从整体上进行统筹和推动，在制度惯性之下，这显然不是一件很容易的事情；另一方面是因为人们的主观意识存在偏向性，容易低估风险，对即将到来的祸患视而不见，贻误了最好的?；硎被?/p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：李敏杰 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> <a href="/c/2017-08-07/1703228.shtml" class="a">01</a> <a href="/c/2017-08-07/1703228_1.shtml">02</a>  </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：灰犀牛风险事件</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2017-07-21/1670664.shtml">比“黑天鹅”更可怕的“灰犀牛”到底是什么</a></li> </ul> </div> <div style="height:40px"></div>  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div style="height:40px"></div><script charset="gbk" src="http://p.tanx.com/ex?i=mm_58500226_6900940_24396084"></script></div>  <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_55"><a 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