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href="/yl/rp/">锐评</a></span> </h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">叙利亚?；鹦椋皇且桓鲂∧勘?/span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2016年09月12日 10:13 | 作者:钱克锦 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新京报</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="jiathis_style_24x24"> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_renren"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code_mini/jia.js?uid=1399539302485450" charset="utf-8"></script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美俄两国虽然就叙利亚全新?；鹦榇锍梢恢?，但鉴于叙利亚问题的复杂性，未来效果如何，难以预知。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">持续五年已造成40万人丧生的叙利亚冲突，终于有了一点点转机：9月10日，美国国务卿克里和俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫，在瑞士日内瓦宣布，两国就叙利亚全新?；鹦榇锍梢恢隆?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">媒体之所以称之为全新的?；鹦椋且蛭衲?月份，美俄曾联合宣布了一个?；鹦?，并得到联合国支持。但是随后半年多的时间里，叙利亚政府和反政府武装多次不顾协议，挑起武装冲突。协议名存实亡。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这个将于12日生效的新?；鹦榉帧傲讲阶摺?。第一步，各方不得动用武力，以便人道主义救援物资顺利抵达遭长期围困的叙利亚城镇；俄罗斯要敦促叙利亚政府停止对特定区域反对派的军事行动；美国则要求叙利亚“温和”反对派与“征服阵线”等极端组织划清界限。第二步，如果协议能够落实7天，美俄将加强在叙利亚军事合作，包括情报共享和协调打击极端组织。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这个“两步走”的协议基本上反映了叙利亚局势的复杂性，以及美俄达成协议的背后原因。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">首先是叙利亚局势的复杂。过去五年里，最初是反对派试图推翻宗教派别上属于少数派的阿萨德的统治，后来出现的“伊斯兰国”极端组织，出于宗教原因也加入对抗阿萨德的战斗。但“伊斯兰国”是美俄共同的敌人。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这导致的结果，就是阿萨德政府得到俄罗斯支持，反对派得到美国帮助，但反对派中的激进派又和“伊斯兰国”有联系。因此，俄罗斯和叙政府军在打击“伊斯兰国”的同时，也打击反对派；美国指责对反对派的打击，但也不能不顾忌反对派和“伊斯兰国”的接触。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“伊斯兰国”因素的存在，成为美俄两国共同解决叙利亚问题的切入点，两国在一定程度上相互做了让步。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美国方面，本来铁了心要把阿萨德赶下台——在叙利亚动荡的前几年，美国的态度是只要阿萨德还在台上，一切就免谈。但随着“伊斯兰国”的威胁越来越大，美国也就慢慢不提“阿萨德非下不可”了。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">俄罗斯则因为乌克兰问题与西方关系闹僵，加上国内经济停滞，日子不太好过。但自去年秋天以反恐名义高调介入叙利亚，保住了自己在叙利亚的传统利益，在叙利亚问题上占了上风后，于是转而向西方合作。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">过去几个月里，俄罗斯一直表示希望与美国合作，共同打击“伊斯兰国”等极端组织。奈何美国军方觉得，如果不是俄罗斯搅局，西方恐怕就更容易对付阿萨德和“伊斯兰国”，因此拒绝俄罗斯的“好意”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">只是形势比人强，“伊斯兰国”的威胁，土耳其局势以及土俄、土美关系均不明朗，让美国不得不改变初衷，慢慢考虑与俄罗斯合作；而俄罗斯在获得一系列“先手”之后，没有乘胜追击，而是力求与美国合作，或许还希望以此为契机，改善美俄关系。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">所以从这一点上看，这个全新协议来之不易。而且鉴于叙利亚形势的复杂性，真要获得预期效果，也是不易。总的说来，这算是五年来，尤其是俄罗斯介入后一年来，叙利亚局势取得的一些小小进展吧。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">□钱克锦（媒体人）</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘文俊 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p 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