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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">中国经济上半?。涸龀げ椒ナ贾毡３治冉?/p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">刘英中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">7月15日，国家统计局公布了上半年经济数据，我国GDP同比增长6.3%。经济增长动力在转换、结构在持续优化，上半年经济增速是在中美贸易摩擦下取得的，来之不易。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">上半年，在中美贸易摩擦升级下，我国出口和贸易逆差不降反增。我国货物进出口总额14.7万亿元，同比增长3.9%，其中，出口79521亿元，增长6.1%；进口67155亿元，增长1.4%。进出口相抵，顺差12366亿元，同比扩大41.6%。这正说明中美贸易摩擦不仅没有打击中国的出口和贸易顺差，反而是增加美国企业的成本、推高其通胀、降低其福利，由此下半年可以降低对中美贸易摩擦的担忧。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">尽管上半年确实多数月份出口增速下滑，但是上半年出口总体表现良好，尽管同比下降但是上半年总体超出预期。下半年经济数据如何，不仅要看出口，看中美贸易进展，更要看消费与投资。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">今年上半年三大需求中贡献率最大的消费对GDP的贡献率是60.1%，货物和服务净出口的贡献率是20.7%，而上年同期净出口对GDP的贡献率则是负的10.7%，资本形成的贡献率是19.2%，与净出口旗鼓相当。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">上半年投资增速趋稳，固定资产投资增长5.8%，比1-5月份加快0.2个百分点。虽然在三驾马车中贡献率最小，但投资对GDP增长的贡献仍然立等可取。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">从投资三大板块来看，一是房地产投资增速为10.9%，去年以来我国房地产投资一直保持着双位数的增长速度，房地产投资直接拉动其上下游五六十个产业的投资与增长?？悸堑轿夜钦蚧视敕⒋锕蚁啾然褂?0多个百分点的差距，未来房地产投资在保持经济增长中仍将扮演重要角色。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">二是制造业投资提速，制造业投资增速最近两个月呈现小幅加快态势，制造业正处于新旧动能转换关键期，要实现“制造大国”向“智造大国”的转变，增加高品质的制造业投资是实现经济高质量发展的必由之路。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">三是基础设施投资提速，上半年基础设施投资提速，道路运输业投资增长8.1%，提高1.9个百分点，铁路运输业投资增长14.1%，随着国内现代物流业发展和“一带一路”互联互通建设的推进，基础设施投资在下半年依然潜力巨大。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">上半年的投资结构还呈现出逐步优化的趋势，高技术产业、制造业技术改造的投资及社会领域的投资都保持在10%以上增速。今年在减税降费的背景下，我国仍安排了2.15万亿地方专项债为投资提供资金支持。6月份地方政府发债183只，近九千亿元，环比大增196%。伴随金融业加速开放和外资金融机构加速进入，下半年投资可期。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">今年上半年消费对GDP的贡献率达60.1%，消费的基础性作用正在加强和巩固，社会消费品零售总额上半年增长8.4%，比一季度略有加快。其中6月份社会消费品零售总额增长9.8%，比5月加快1.2个百分点，消费增长总体加快。尤其是伴随人均收入的提升，消费的升级换代也正在加速。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">上半年一般贸易的比重同比增长提升，外贸结构持续优化。在美国对中国贸易战不断升级的背景下，上半年净出口对GDP增长的贡献率依然达到20.7%，在三驾马车中排在第二。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">在去年上半年中美贸易摩擦初起之时，双方尚未加征关税，很多美国企业提前增加采购货物的储备，因此导致去年同期的出口基数较高，而上半年我国的出口仍然实现了3.9%的同比增长速度，外贸顺差不减反增，其中六月份外贸顺差同比增长25%，仅次于五月份78%的增速。这也显示出中美贸易存在很强的互补性，贸易摩擦对我国经济影响微乎其微。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">正是由于中国经济增长更多依赖消费和投资，而非出口，中国早已转型为消费拉动经济增长，而非出口导向型经济体。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">对上半年经济进行分析，不仅要看三驾马车对GDP的贡献率，还要从三驾马车的存量结构及其占GDP的比重看。消费正在逐年增加，内需占GDP的比重在不断提高，货物和服务净出口占GDP的比总体在下降。我国经济增长越来越依靠内需、依靠消费的拉动作用。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">从三驾马车的增速来看，消费和投资增速明显比净出口增速要快很多。从三驾马车贡献率看，我国经济增长越来越多依靠消费的拉动，越来越多地依靠内需增长。当前我国中等收入以上人群近4亿人，伴随我国经济持续增长和人民收入的提高，中国已经成为最具增长潜力的消费市场，内需越来越成为拉动经济增长的关键。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">除了需求结构持续优化，供给侧结构性改革正在推动经济结构持续优化。上半年第三产业增加值占GDP比重为54.9%，比上年同期提高0.5个百分点，比第二产业高15个百分点；第三产业增长对GDP增长的贡献率为60.3%，高于第二产业23.2个百分点。服务业保持较好发展势头，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，交通运输、仓储和邮政业，金融业增加值同比分别增长20.6%、7.8%、7.3%和7.3%，分别快于第三产业13.6、0.8、0.3和0.3个百分点。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">现代服务业继续保持良好的发展势头。制造业加快转型和升级，上半年我国高技术制造业增加值增长9%，比全部规模以上工业速度加快3个百分点，高技术制造业增加值占全部规模以上工业增加值的比重也比上年同期提高了0.8个百分点。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">区域结构不断优化。不仅需求结构和产业结构在优化升级，伴随高水平对外开放和“一带一路”高质量发展，我国中东西部地区发展潜力大。作为对外开放末梢的中西部地区，在共建“一带一路”中则成为对外开放的窗口，中西部地区加速发展，产业结构转型升级，东部沿海地区加快创新和技术进步，区域结构不断优化。</p><p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 2em;">从上半年数据中，我们可以看到，无论中美贸易如何推进，无论中美经贸磋商结果如何，中国经济增长的步伐始终保持稳健。而我国坚定深化改革步伐不变，加快高水平对外开放的稳健步伐不变。无论中美贸易摩擦升级与否，我们都有理由对下半年中国经济增长抱有期待，全年实现6%以上的经济增速目标可期。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：曾珂 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：增长步伐始终保持稳健</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2019-02-14/2283868.shtml">中共中央办公厅国务院办公厅印发《关于加强金融服务民营企业的若干意见》</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2019-01-28/2271982.shtml">GDP总量突破90万亿中国经济“增长故事”远未结束</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2019-01-08/2258220.shtml">2018年印发中央党内法规74部制度建设成果丰硕</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2019-01-08/2257916.shtml">中央党内法规去年印发74部制度建设成果丰硕</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2019-01-05/2256622.shtml">古代丝绸之路的历史价值及对共建“一带一路”的启示</a></li> <li><a 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