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class="i2i2jyu4k" id="content"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pv_box m_p ov_hi"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bw_750 fl"> <h1 class="pv_title_2"> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="site fr"><a >首页</a>><a href="/sy/yw/">要闻 </a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/sy/yw/">要闻</a></span> </h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">巴西经济为何在“奇?！焙汀跋葳濉奔浞锤础冒臀骶米叶盘乩?/span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2019年06月19日 14:24 | 作者:宫若涵 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新华社</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社圣保罗6月18日电专访：巴西经济为何在“奇?！焙汀跋葳濉奔浞锤础冒臀骶米叶盘乩?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者宫若涵</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">近几十年来，巴西经济在高速增长和停滞甚至衰退的周期间反复。巴西圣保罗市阿曼多·阿尔瓦雷斯·彭特亚多基金会大学经济学院教授保罗·杜特拉日前对新华社记者说，巴西经济要打破这样的周期律，唯有坚持中长期改革这一条出路。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">回顾巴西的经济发展历史，杜特拉总结说：“巴西经济增长呈现痉挛状态?！泵扛粢欢问奔?，政府便通过小范围改革并约束财政纪律来推动经济增长；但中长期改革缺位和政策失误往往又诱发新问题，导致增长停滞甚至衰退。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这样的循环在巴西历史上多次出现，其中最具代表性的高速增长期是1968年至1973年。世界银行数据显示，在这段时期巴西年均经济增长率超10%。这段时期后来被称为“巴西奇?！?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在杜特拉看来，之所以会出现“巴西奇?！?，主要是因为国家主导的经济模式成功刺激了投资，并将经济衰退期闲置的产能调动了起来。但问题在于，和同期实现经济腾飞的日韩不同，巴西在这一时期盲目追求经济扩张，货币和财政纪律废弛，社会改革滞后。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">杜特拉说，20世纪70年代巴西长期实行宽松财政政策，导致公共债务增加；同时由于当时国际市场借贷利率很低，巴西大量借债导致外债暴增。随着1979年第二次石油危机爆发，巴西出口暴跌。同时，国际市场利率回升导致巴西出现偿债?；?，国内流动性过?；挂⒀现赝ㄕ?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这导致巴西经济增速在20世纪八九十年代大幅下滑。杜特拉说，巴西面临的就是“中等收入陷阱”问题，即在人均国民收入达到一定水平后，便陷入经济增长停滞甚至衰退状态，无法向高收入国家跃升。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">和巴西几乎同一时期经济起飞的韩国成功跻身高收入国家，而巴西则深陷?；６盘乩衔?，要避免“中等收入陷阱”，关键在于推进中长期改革，因为改革是经济增长的基础。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">进入21世纪后，得益于建立自由市场，采取更审慎的宏观政策和实现央行独立等一系列改革措施，“巴西奇?！痹俣任蚰抗?。即便在经历次贷?；蟮?010年，巴西经济增速仍高达7.5%。2011年，英国智库经济与商业研究中心发布的统计数据显示，巴西的经济规模首次超过英国，成为全球第六大经济体。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">但好景不长，近年来“痉挛”再次发作，巴西又一次经历严重经济衰退。2015年和2016年巴西经济连续两年大幅萎缩，2017年和2018年虽然走出衰退，但增速徘徊在1%左右。世界银行预计，今年巴西经济增速仅1.5%。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">杜特拉认为，巴西经济只有改革这一条出路，尤其是取消本地产业补贴、开放市场、吸引外资、整顿财政纪律，并推进包括养老金制度在内的社会福利制度改革。只有坚持推进这些中长期改革，巴西才有可能打破在“奇?！焙汀跋葳濉敝溲返闹芷诼伞?/p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：李敏杰 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：巴西经济西经</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2019-02-20/2287521.shtml">与最亲近幕僚决裂巴西总统解职总统府秘书长</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" 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