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class="pv_title_2"><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="site fr"><a href='/'>首页</a>><a href='/gqmq/'>国企·民企</a>><a href='/gqmq/czd/'>财·知道</a></span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/gqmq/czd/">财·知道</a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">研究机构微幅上修台湾今年GDP 称当前经济需“?？刺?/span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2018年09月30日 11:02 | 来源：<a target="_blank">中新社</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">台湾元大宝华综合经济研究院26日发布最新经济预测,上修台湾今年GDP至2.6%,较前次预测(6月)增加0.05个百分点,主因是迄今经济表现超乎预期,但仍面临中美贸易纷扰、两岸关系恶化及年金改革冲击等“三道逆风”,可能阻碍未来景气展望。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">据《经济日报》、中央社等报道,元大宝华综合经济研究院董事长梁国源说,今年初各界对台湾经济前景的展望都还十分乐观,如同马路上绿灯亮起时,可以一路畅通。但第二季后,讯息开始多空交杂,经济数据有正面、也有负面,这样的情况下,就得“停看听”,停下脚步来,看看到底经济发生什么事,听听各界的看法。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">梁国源认为,尽管此次微幅上修GDP,但输出成长、民间消费及民间投资均下修,明年GDP预测值2.45%,也低于今年。虽然全球景气不至于急转直下,但仍需有所警惕。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">梁国源提醒,美国和中国大陆是台湾最重要的出口市场,双方贸易摩擦,降低进口需求;全球供应链贸易量萎缩,减弱零组件需求;若干与大陆出口竞争产品获得转单利益等三个方面影响台湾经济。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">至于这一贸易摩擦是否将吸引台商回流台湾,梁国源认为,回台湾生产须考虑成本因素,以及当局是否展现积极态度。最重要的是,当局如何处理两岸关系,这才是影响事情后续发展的关键。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">此外,军公教年金改革今年7月上路,所得替代率逐年递减,经济冲击虽可分散,但今、明两年影响较大,粗估将拉低民间消费0.6%至0.76%。所以,本次下修今年台湾民间消费成长率至2.48%,较前次预测减少0.12个百分点。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘小源 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：台湾经济 gdp</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2018-05-02/2041198.shtml">著名经济学家林毅夫：改革开放创40年经济增长奇迹</a></li> <li><a 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