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title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社首尔7月10日电财经观察:美国贸易?；ぶ饕辶詈妹梢跤?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者何媛</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">韩国经济2018年上半年在出口强劲拉动下维持了增长态势,但未来将面临美国贸易?；ぶ饕?、内需疲弱以及国际资本外流三大挑战。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">韩国银行(央行)6月发布的数据显示,主要得益于出口业绩及建筑业投资向好,今年第一季度韩国经济环比增长1.0%,增速与去年同期持平。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">韩国经济是典型的出口驱动型。韩国产业通商资源部数据显示,今年1至6月韩国累计出口额同比增长6.6%,达到创纪录的2975亿美元。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">但是,美国政府的贸易?；ぶ饕逭呷煤隹谛幸蹈械接锹?也给韩国经济未来发展蒙上阴影。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美国政府今年5月下旬针对进口汽车及零部件发起“232调查”,波及韩国汽车出口行业。美国是韩国最大汽车出口市场,去年韩国汽车出口总量中33%销往美国。韩国《亚洲经济》分析,韩国整车和零部件行业恐难逃美国贸易保护措施影响,其中汽车零部件行业5年间可能会损失122亿美元。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">另外,韩国国会预算政策处近日发布的《美国对韩国进口限制影响报告书》预测,美国对韩国洗衣机、太阳能电池、钢铁等产品的进口限制措施,将给韩国出口造成2.6万亿韩元(约合23亿美元)损失,并导致约1.6万个就业岗位流失。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">专家认为,出口结构单一也给韩国经济埋下隐患。相关数据显示,今年上半年半导体、石油和石化产品贡献了超过四成的出口,其中半导体贡献居首。但据市场研究机构预测,未来半导体市场增长率将逐渐放缓,并可能在2020年出现负增长。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">韩国《中央日报》报道,与半导体和石化行业出口强劲相比,可以创造大量就业的汽车、钢铁和显示器等产业依然未能恢复活力。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">国内消费信心不足是韩国经济面临的另一隐忧。韩国银行统计显示,今年6月韩国国民消费者心理指数为105.5,较上月下降2.4,为去年4月以来最低值。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">韩国银行分析,消费信心不足一是缘于对美国贸易?；ぶ饕宓牡Ｓ?二是就业数据难言乐观。韩国统计厅数据显示,韩国新增就业人口5月降至7.2万人,就业增长创下2010年1月以来最低水平。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">韩国经济面临的第三大挑战是美国加息引发的国际资本外流风险。美联储今年3月加息后,美国基准利率超过韩国,这是2007年8月以来首次出现的情况。韩国专家担心,韩美利差逐渐扩大以及贸易摩擦升级,可能会导致大量资本短期内从韩国市场流出。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">对于未来经济走势,韩国央行4月维持了对今年经济增长3%的预测。但韩国LG经济研究院将今年韩国经济预期增长率调整为2.8%,认为“韩国经济增长或将逐渐放缓”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">面对经济增长遇到的问题,韩国政府正积极采取措施。韩国国会5月审议通过了政府提出的3.8万亿韩元(约合34亿美元)补充预算案,主要用于解决青年就业问题和扶持困难地区发展。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">另外,韩国政府也在寻找新的经济增长点。韩国国土交通部今年2月发布声明,计划今后5年内投入近320亿美元,用于自动驾驶、电动汽车和道路智能系统等新技术研发应用和设施建设。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘小源 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p 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