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<script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2018年06月25日 14:48 | 来源：<a target="_blank">海外网</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: inherit;">原标题：专家解读土耳其大选：埃尔多安连任后迎四大挑战</span></p><div style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><div class="i2i2jyu4k" id="endText" style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">6月24日，土耳其同时举行总统和议会选举。根据初步计票结果显示，现任总统埃尔多安在总统选举中获胜。在6名主要候选人中，埃尔多安赢得52.5％的选票；共和人民党候选人穆哈雷姆·因杰获得30.7％的选票，排名第二。而在议会选举中，埃尔多安领导的正义与发展党和其结盟的民族行动党分别获得293个和49个席位，这样，他们组成的“人民联盟”共计获得议会600个席位中的342席，也赢得了议会多数席位?？梢运?，埃尔多安在总统扩权后举行的大选中获得了意想中的胜利。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">应该说，在土耳其政坛，埃尔多安执政经验和成就目前无人能及。早在2003年埃尔多安就出任总理，此后两度连任，2014在土耳其首次直选中当选总统。为了赢得总统扩权后的首次大选，埃尔多安进行策划和准备，如今获胜也尽在清理之中，但问题是，埃尔多安是在土耳其处于重大政治变革和经济形势动荡不安的背景下，赢得一场提前进行的大选，这给未来的执政带来诸多悬念和挑战。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">土耳其是一个具有重要影响的中东国家。舆论之所以高度关注土耳其大选前景，主要在于埃尔多安所代表的土耳其正义和发展党（正发党，AKP）在土耳其已执政多年，正面临着越来越多的国内国际问题挑战。同时，土耳其的对外政策正在给地区国际力量带来越来越多的影响。因此，尽管埃尔多安涉险赢得了选举，但连任后的埃尔多安将会遇到一系列的挑战。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">首先，埃尔多安领导的正发党在议会选举中没有单独获得一半以上选举，尽管正发党通过与民族行动党结盟的方式暂时获得了议会多数席位，但埃尔多安今后在议会中受到钳制的局面仍然会出现，土耳其国内政治演变的局面将趋向复杂。埃尔多安2017年通过推动公投，将议会制国家改为总统制国家后，总统的权力大幅扩大，获得了直接任命包括副总统和内阁部长在内的权力，总理职位被取消。尽管一年多来土耳其政局总体保持稳定，但一些在野党对埃尔多安大权在握一直耿耿于怀。但无论哪个反对党都难以单独抗衡正发党，因此，主要反对党寻求联合。大选前，第一大反对党共和人民党(CHP)、与“好党”、幸福党和人民民主党(HDP)组成联盟，尽管没有赢得议会多数，但对正发党的钳制作用不可忽视。大选前民族行动党（MHP）是第二大反对党，在执政理念上和正发党并不一致，它和正发党的联盟并不牢固，今后土耳其议会的政治斗争将趋于激烈，对埃尔多安的执政形成制约。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">其次，多年来一向靠经济成就取胜的正发党正面临经济发展减慢、通货膨胀扩张的不利影响，正发党通过打“经济牌”吸引选民的效应正在降低。近年来土耳其经济发展遭遇困难，高通胀、高失业率和货币贬值影响了广大民众的生活。2018年以来，土耳其里拉兑换美元大幅波动走低，累计贬值已超过20％。土耳其官方公布的6月数据显示，土耳其最新失业率为10.1％，青年人的失业率达17.7％，均创出了近年的新低。正发党以在土耳其执政十多年，正是靠持续发展的经济成就赢得了连年执政，如今土耳其经济震荡走低，无疑成为影响正发党及其盟友未来执政的最大负面因素。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">再次，土耳其面临的安全形势不容忽视。尽管土耳其从2018年初开始越境在叙利亚北部展开军事行动，打击叙利亚的库尔德人武装，意图在叙利亚北部构建“安全区”，保障土耳其边界地区的安全。但在叙利亚和伊拉克被打垮的伊斯兰国（IS）武装，正在分散流散到偏远地区，仍然对当地局势和安全形势带来威胁。据报道，土耳其警方6月22日在首都安卡拉拘捕14名疑是极端组织“伊斯兰国”的外籍成员，粉碎了一次针对大选的袭击阴谋，可见土耳其的安全形势仍然不容乐观。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">除了国内问题外，土耳其的对外政策，尤其是埃尔多安的地区政策，也经常引来国内舆论与国际社会批评。在2014年赢得直选总统后，埃尔多安的对外政策显得仓促、多变和不连贯。一方面，土耳其面临着如何与大国保持和协调稳定的关系，另一方面还需要应对地区国家挤压空间的多种挑战。土耳其作为一个北约成员国，逻辑上应该和北约的盟主美国保持好关系，但近年来，在有关叙利亚问题、库尔德问题、伊朗核协议问题等中东热点问题上，土耳其和俄罗斯靠得越来越近，和美国的态度与立场渐行渐远。土耳其带头代表穆斯林国家强烈批评美国承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都之举，与美国的关系明显变冷。土耳其与俄罗斯以及以色列的关系进程也反复不定。充满短期与投机色彩的土耳其对外政策，使人们很难对埃尔多安下一任总统任期内的外部环境产生乐观预期。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">（余国庆，中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所研究员）</p></div></div> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：曾珂 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：埃尔多安连任后迎四大挑战</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" 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