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href="/sy/yw/">要闻 </a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/sy/yw/">要闻</a></span> </h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">美股巨震敲响警钟——金融?；曛实姆此?/span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2018年02月09日 20:06 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新华社</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社北京２月９日电特稿：美股巨震敲响警钟——金融危机十年之际的反思</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者杜静　谢鹏　徐海静</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">十年前，发端于美国的?；シ⑷蚪鹑诤Ｐ?，世界经济从此陷入长期低增长的“新平庸”。十年后，一场源自华尔街的股市风暴引发全球震荡，让“金融?；闭飧霰疽讶榷冉ネ说拿试俅问艿焦刈?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一周之内，道琼斯股指两度暴跌千点，这轮全球金融市场巨震是否是?；日祝渴旯?，金融?；澈蟮氖澜缇蒙畈憬峁剐晕侍馐欠竦玫浇饩?？各国又是否为应对新的风险积聚做好政策准备？持续的探析与思索仍有重大意义。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong>“闪崩巨震”背后的诱因与变化</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">风暴始于美股。纽约股市道琼斯指数继５日大跌１１７５．２１点后，８日再度下跌１０３２．８９点，成为美股历史上鲜有的两次千点暴跌。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“闪电崩盘?！庇⒐督鹑谑北ā氛庋稳萁诘拿拦?。截至目前，道指较今年１月２６日创下的历史高点已累计下跌１０．４％。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美股暴跌引发的恐慌情绪向全球扩散，亚洲和欧洲主要股市都步入深度调整。此外，充满争议但全球吸睛的加密货币市场也未能幸免，比特币价格较去年末“腰斩”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">解读此次美股暴跌时，华尔街人士多将其归因于“技术性回调”，是对股市前期虚高的“挤泡沫”。这样的回调背后有一个明显的诱因——美联储更快加息的预期，而这一因素或将在未来一段时间不断发酵。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">２０１７年世界经济超预期复苏的一个结果是，美联储及其他主要央行可能会比预期更快收紧货币政策，而这将给已然“三高”（高位、高估值、高风险）的美国等股市带来冲击。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">目前，在多数华尔街人士看来，此次美股暴跌虽不是牛熊拐点，但释放出一个信号，即波动性的回归。过去一周，道指４次出现至少１％的波动幅度；相比之下，２０１７年全年总共出现１０次这样的情况。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“这是市场波动的转折点。”美国克利尔布里奇投资公司首席投资策略师杰弗里斯·舒尔策说。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">澳大利亚创新金融研究院院长郭生祥认为：“接下来中小调整将是相对的常态，预期要谨慎，防范要加强，消化要拉长，否则将是一个又一个防不胜防。”</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong>“视而不见”之下的风险与失衡</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">对于近日的股市巨震，目前多数观点认为，这更多是长期牛市后的调整，尚不存在显著的熊市特征乃至资本市场危机风险。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">究其原因，一方面，当前全球宏观经济依然向好，美国、欧元区、中国等主要经济体表现良好，基本面没有显著变化；另一方面，伴随世界经济加快复苏，企业盈利明显改善，为股市长期向好提供有力支撑。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">但也有观察人士提出，尽管金融?；丫ザ嗄?，但其背后的一些深层结构性失衡却仍未得到根本改善。这些问题如果不能引起足够重视并得到妥善解决，或成为孕育新一轮危机的温床，有时候风险就像“灰犀牛”般让人视而不见。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">首先是虚实失衡。?；⑶?，大量资金涌向美国房地产和金融市场，导致虚火过旺，成为触发?；闹匾找?。时至今日，虚实失衡问题仍在，这也正是为何美国实施多轮量化宽松之后通胀仍低的一个重要原因：增发的货币大多留在金融系统，没有进入实体经济，这些货币既没有带来投资增加以刺激生产，也没有带来消费增加以推动增长，而是显著推升了资产价格。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">纽约大学经济学教授鲁比尼说：“金融与实体经济之间的裂痕在扩大。流动性推升的股市高水平与不合理的繁盛反衬出实体经济的畸形?！?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">其次是债务失衡。根据国际清算银行数据，２００６年至２０１６年，全球政府、企业和家庭累计债务与全球国内生产总值之比从２３４％升至２７５％。从历史维度看，世界和平时期的全球债务膨胀程度从未如此之高。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">英国经济学家马丁·沃尔夫认为，更高利率或将导致当前可控的债务变得不可控，从而催生新一轮危机。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">再次是治理失衡。近年来，尽管发展中和新兴经济体在全球金融治理中的代表性和发言权有所提升，但仍未充分反映其在世界经济中的体量与影响力。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">金融?；曛?，美联储更快加息的预期仍在全球范围内掀起波澜。世界被美元绑架的悖论和系统性失衡依然存在。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong>“痛定思痛”后的短视与远见</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">近期全球金融市场震荡再次为政策制定者敲响了警钟：全球金融系统或许没有想象得那么稳固，当年?；吹慕萄当匦肜渭?，应保持清醒，未雨绸缪。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">金融危机以来，世界各国普遍加强了金融监管，积极构建金融安全网，防范系统性金融风险发生。然而，这些金融监管方面所取得的进展如今却存在倒退风险，因为就在?；厥嫉?，特朗普政府正酝酿放松金融监管的措施。这可能会降低资本和流动性缓冲或削弱监管的有效性，对全球金融稳定产生负面影响。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">与之形成鲜明对比的是，中国决策者多次强调要守住不发生系统性风险的底线，并将防范化解重大风险作为三大攻坚战之首。近年来，面对国际范围的金融“去杠杆”行动，中国按照自身经济的发展节奏，因时而变，深入推进“三去一降一补”，去杠杆成效明显。同时，中国强调防止经济“脱实向虚”，引导金融业重点服务于实体经济，从根本上把住风险防范的阀门。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">中国防风险的努力得到国际广泛认可，中国也因而继续成为世界经济的动力源和稳定器。国际货币基金组织第一副总裁利普顿认为，“中国经济有潜力在中期内安全地保持强劲增长”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">近期美股暴跌引发的全球市场波动，再次凸显各国金融与经济的高度关联性，以及大国货币政策的外溢性。世界经济存在的深层次矛盾仍未彻底解决，债务高企、资产泡沫、?；ぶ饕?、国际和地区热点问题升级等多重风险又开始出现。要想应对这些挑战，巩固发展势头，需要国际社会共同合作和努力。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">金融?；岳矗娑跃酶此盏墓餐挝窈吞粽?，主要发达国家和发展中国家通过二十国集团等多边平台加强了政策沟通与协调，共同促进了世界经济复苏。２０１７年，主要经济体自金融?；岳词状问迪滞皆龀ぃ拭骋缀屯蹲首叱龅凸?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">然而，随着经济好转，部分国家，特别是发达国家合作的意愿却有所下降。郭生祥指出，金融?；岳?，主要经济体的合作有效抑制了保护主义，但实体经济还没有根本好转，一些国家就急于拆台，保护主义、单边主义泛起，财政货币政策缺乏协调，让实体经济竞争成本增加。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">更有国际观察人士认为，在金融经济全球化的今天，各国，特别是具有系统影响力的主要经济体在宏观政策上充分考虑包容性和外溢性，已经是时代所需。（参与记者：刘丽娜、邓茜）（完）</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：杨岚 </p> 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