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href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社北京１１月２２日电新闻分析：德国组阁危机折射欧洲政坛大气候</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者张伟</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">近年来，德国政局稳定、经济稳步增长，被视为“欧洲的稳定器”。然而，正在发酵的德国组阁?；?，不仅让默克尔总理遭遇执政１２年来最严重的挫折，更使以“稳定”著称的德国政治文化传统面临前所未有的挑战。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">德国组阁?；?，有其国内政治势力分化组合的复杂原因，但如果从整个欧洲政治版图去观察，特别是结合过去一段时间其他欧洲国家的选情来看，德国组阁危机所折射的，是社会阶层和利益加剧分化背景下欧洲政坛的大气候。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">首先，政治碎片化使得选票分散，主流政党社会凝聚力下降。德国组阁危机表明，大党不“大”，小党不“小”，过去一个大党搭一个小党就能组阁的目标越来越难实现，社会利益诉求多元化正使欧洲政治光谱趋于分散化。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一些西方媒体认为，欧洲传统大党“一家独大”的局面导致反对声音难以表达，许多选民尤其是低层选民难以通过选举实现其诉求，感觉被主流政治忽略。传统大党则因“代表性”不足，其社会基础不断萎缩，支持率不断下降，直接给德国选择党等新党小党带来生存空间，政治碎片化现象日趋明显。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在９月举行的德国大选中，虽然极右翼势力步步紧逼，但主流政治堡垒的优势基本得以保全。尽管如此，由默克尔领导的中右翼联盟党（基民盟和基社盟）得票率却从四年前大选的４１．５％大幅下降到３３％，可谓“惨胜”，而德国选择党、自由民主党（自民党）的得票率大幅提高。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">其次，政治碎片化冲击和打破了传统的政治共识，政治极化现象日益明显，一些民粹主义政党利用社会矛盾点和主流政治代言的空白区，通过极端化的政治主张吸引选民，以小搏大，比如德国选择党。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">近年来，民粹主义在欧洲日益蔓延，欧洲民众反建制情绪不断释放。面对经济?；?、难民?；⒖植老?、债务危机等多重打击，一些政党为迎合选民不满和求变的心理，以反欧盟、反欧元、反难民等极端化主张提供“另一个选择”，甚至在欧洲地区形成了相互呼应的局面。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在法国总统选举中，“国民阵线”成功杀入第二轮选举，左右两派传统大党却在第一轮落败；“反欧排外”的德国选择党和荷兰自由党进入两国议会，分别成为两国第三和第二大党；在奥地利大选中，极右翼民粹主义政党奥地利自由党得票率排名第三，有望与第一大党人民党联合组阁。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">此外，欧洲传统主流政党政策趋同，也为民粹政党提供了表达空间。长期以来，欧洲国家政坛主要由中左、中右传统大党执掌，或轮流坐庄或联合执政。以德国为例，过去８年，中右翼联盟党和中左翼社民党组成联合政府，两派在经济、社会和环保等方面的政策日益趋同。德国《明镜》周刊评论说：今年大选中，人们要“用显微镜才能发现社民党和基民盟之间的政纲差异”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">再者，从欧洲多国选举可以看出，民粹主义政党已开始影响欧洲传统政党的政策主张与立场，在一些国家甚至左右政治议程。在今年荷兰、法国和德国等重要选举中，虽然没有出现极端民粹主义政党上台的情况，但是舆论普遍认为，极端民粹主义目前在欧洲只是暂时退潮，其存在的社会根源并没有消除。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美国《外交》杂志近期刊文认为，民粹主义只是反映出西式民主制度出现的诸多问题，并不是造成这些问题的根源。西式民主机制需要回应选民的诉求，否则民粹主义将加速西方民主制度的衰败。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：秦云 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：德国组阁?；?#32;欧洲政坛</p> <h1 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