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</h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2017年09月28日 19:42 | 作者:冯武勇 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新华社</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社北京９月２８日电（国际观察）日本大?。赫炒笙磁啤≌拇笫О?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者冯武勇</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">日本首相安倍晋三２８日宣布解散众议院，提前举行大选。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">安倍此举原本是打算利用主要反对党民进党当前的混乱局面，一举奠定自民党今后４年的执政优势。但东京都知事小池百合子突然宣布创立“希望之党”，成为集结包括民进党在内各派反对党势力的中枢，令日本政坛出现大洗牌，这使得自民党选情不确定性大增。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">鉴于“希望之党”与自民党在安保、外交、修宪等问题上立场大同小异，无论大选结果如何，日本政坛保守化趋势将进一步强化。而从安倍此次解散众议院的前因后果看，此举也标志着上世纪９０年代以来日本政治改革的大失败和日本宪政?；拇蟊ⅰ?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">政坛大洗牌</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">安倍２５日宣布了将在２８日临时国会召集首日解散众议院的决定。２７日，小池百合子召开记者会，宣布成立“希望之党”，由她出任党首。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">２８日一早，更有戏剧性的一幕出现了，最大反对党民进党党首前原诚司在党内提议，与小池的新党“合流”，民进党候选人以“希望之党”候选人名义参加即将举行的众议院选举。这意味着民进党事实上的“解体”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">实际上，前原诚司也是不得已而为之。自从安倍放出提前解散众议院的风声后，民进党议员退党者络绎不绝。发起成立“希望之党”的议员中，以民进党退党议员居多。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">日本《每日新闻》２７日公布的最新民调结果显示，“希望之党”目前在选民中的支持率为１８％，仅次于自民党的２９％，远高于民进党８％的支持率。这使得包括前原在内的民进党阵营愈发动摇。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">民进党与“希望之党”合流，无疑将导致日本政坛大洗牌。民进党内保守派议员预计绝大多数将投入小池门下，而党内自由派议员对小池新党的保守色彩比较抵触，有可能另立门户或成为独立候选人。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">小池也已经放风，将对前来投奔的民进党议员进行“甄别”，在安保、修宪等问题上与其理念不同的民进党议员将不会被吸纳进“希望之党”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">更加保守化</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“希望之党”在立党纲领中将自身定位为“包容的改革保守政党”。但从其主要发起人阵容看，可以说比自民党更保守、更右倾、更具排外色彩。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新党纠集了长期与石原慎太郎等极右势力沆瀣一气的中山恭子、长岛昭久、松原仁等保守派政客，也吸纳了部分从自民党退出的议员。而小池本人在政治理念、历史观等方面与安倍可谓“声气相通”。正如日本共产党委员长志位和夫所指，小池新党在修宪等政策上只是安倍自民党的“补充势力”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">随着越来越多“非自民党”保守势力集结在小池新党旗下，这次大选很可能出现“保守派对决”的格局，即安倍领导的自民党对阵小池的新党。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">无论二者如何此消彼长，日本政坛的保守势力都将进一步扩张，日本政界的国家主义、保守主义、修正主义，乃至排外主义的势头可能更加猛烈，政府外交安保政策的鹰派色彩也将更加浓厚。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">政改大失败</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这次安倍提前解散众议院，直接导致民进党事实上解体和日本政坛大洗牌，也标志着２０多年前启动的日本政治改革的失败。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">１９９４年，为打破自民党的垄断地位，日本推动了以改革选举制度为核心的政治改革，以期效仿美国等国实现真正意义上的两党轮流执政。作为自民党的主要挑战者，民进党的前身民主党于１９９６年成立，最终在２００９年大选中击败自民党，首次上台执政。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">但安倍率领的自民党２０１２年重新上台后，汲取下台“教训”，屡屡利用日本宪法和选举制度的灰色地带，滥用解散权、宪法解释权等巩固自身执政优势，打压反对党。安倍上台不足５年，已经两次提前解散众议院，这正是安倍执政后不断掏空日本现行宪政体制的又一体现。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">东京大学前校长佐佐木毅是上世纪９０年代日本选举制度改革的主要鼓吹手。但他近期在接受日本媒体采访时承认，当年以打破自民党派阀政治为特征的改革，导致了首相权力在缺少党内制衡的情况下极度膨胀，安倍首相对解散权的滥用和日本宪政?；拇蟊?，正是这一恶果的体现。（完）</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：秦云 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p 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