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data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">9月20日,美联储议息会议决定,从10月开始缩减资产负债表,这意味着争议不断的美国QE(量化宽松)试验进入逆向操作期,以“缩表”和加息组合并行为特征,美国的货币政策正常化进入一个新阶段。</p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="/upload/resources/image/2017/09/22/2020289.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2017/09/22/2020289.jpg" title="u=1132021784,318818836&fm=27&gp=0" alt="u=1132021784,318818836&fm=27&gp=0" suffix="jpg"/></a></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这次美联储发表的声明有几大看点。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一是美联储将以温和的方式,将庞大的资产负债表“瘦身”,有条不紊地推进货币政策正?；?。这次公布的“缩表”计划和6月首度披露的“缩表”细节基本一致,美联储将从每月缩减60亿美元美国国债和40亿美元抵押贷款支持证券开始,每三个月上调一次规模上限,直至每月削减500亿美元。如此推算,2017年美联储“缩表”规模仅300亿美元,明年也不过4200亿美元,到明年年底,美联储资产负债表规模仅能缩减一成左右。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">二是美联储对内外经济表现仍有信心。美国经济始终维持在美联储期望的轨道之上。和之前测试性“缩表”时期相比,目前美国的经济表现更为理想,给美联储更多操作空间。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">美国经济在温和增长,劳动力市场改善使家庭支出以温和速度扩张,企业投资和进口都在增长。尽管今年第三季度的经济增长将会受到飓风因素拖累,但美联储仍预计未来几年经济会以温和速度增长,美联储上调经济增速预期也体现了对经济的信心。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">从全球经济表现来看,经合组织9月20日在季报中称,全球主要经济体以更协同的步伐实现了增长,投资、就业和贸易都在扩展,该组织上调了中国今明两年的经济增长率,并表示欧元区经济增长速度正在赶上美国。美国企业投资增长同样反映出对经济的信心在增强。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">三是美联储新的货币政策组合短期影响有限,长期影响仍需观察。短期而言,渐进、可预期、温和的美联储“缩表”计划,暂时不会对金融市场形成巨大冲击。目前宣布的计划显示美联储在按部就班实施此前拟定的政策框架。未来在推进过程中,只要不出现意外,市场有充足的反应时间避免发生剧烈震荡。目前美国的利率水平仍然很低,货币政策总体仍在支持经济增长。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">需要注意的是美联储货币政策调整的长期影响。2015年美联储启动加息,开启了推进货币政策正?；慕獭Ｖ灰锰跫芄患绦阋?美联储推进货币政策正?；牟椒ゾ筒换嵬Ｖ?。在通胀较为温和的情况下推进“缩表”,或在经济表现许可的情况下再度加息,都是货币政策正?；牟煌绞?。这次会议公布的利率预期点阵图显示,今年美联储有可能再度加息。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">如果美联储今年12月加息,流动性逐渐回收,货币政策正?；て诮徊角炕?。此外,欧洲央行也可能在未来数月内调整货币政策,叠加美联储货币政策正?；в?有望缓慢改变资金盛宴下金融市场狂欢的局面。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">对于新兴市场而言,如果经济能维持稳定增长,顺利推进结构调整,同时债务情况不出现恶化,将能逐步消化美联储货币政策正?；母好嬗跋?。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘小源 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：美联储政策货币</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" 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