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class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">全面二孩政策无法逆转新人口?；?/span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2017年09月21日 14:40 | 作者:穆光宗 | 来源：<a target="_blank">中国网</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">数据显示，中国的确已经掉入统计和文化双重意义的超低生育率陷阱，这是大不同于传统人口控制时代的新人口危机。中国的生育率在1990年后就低于更替水平，1995年低于1.5，2000年人口普查证实只有1.22，2010年人口普查再次证实生育率只有1.18，2015年1%人口抽样调查查明生育率只有1.05。中国进入低生育陷阱已经多年，2010年、2011年的《中国综合社会调查》、2013年国家卫计委的调查显示20-44岁妇女平均理想子女数只有1.78个、1.88个、1.93个，而实际生育率通常明显低于理想子女数。多年的观察告诉我们，目前的超低生育率现状不利于人口的均衡发展和社会的和谐发展，属于偏低的、不适当的生育水平。种种迹象表明，中国人口的生育率不是太高而是太低，生育量不是太多而是太少，持续的超低生育率已经成为中国人口的新常态和新挑战。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">我国人口发展已经呈现出重大转折性变化，人口总量增长势头明显减弱，劳动年龄人口供给减少，人口老龄化程度不断加深。根据人口形势发生变化，党的十八大作出调整完善生育政策的重大决策，对于优化人口结构，增加劳动力供给，减少人口老龄化压力等具有重要意义。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">全面二孩政策带来的利益有些是可以观察到的，有些是预估和潜在的，有些是推测和可能的。对于劳动力不足、老龄化加剧等问题，全面二孩政策仅能起到缓解作用，而且效果预计最快在二十年后才能显现。在理论上，全面二孩政策实施将减少新生的独生子女风险家庭，增加二孩合适之家。家是最小国，国是最大家，家庭的健康发展将促进社会的和谐发展和国家的长治久安。在宏观上，全面二孩政策在一定程度上有助于改善失衡的人口年龄结构，缓和少子老龄化的进展，优化人口生态。全面二孩政策的利好取决于政策实施的效果，取决于新增的出生量。事实上，人口新政能带来一定时期内出生人口的增加，显然有利于改善人口结构，促进人口长期均衡发展。但“出生回潮”恐怕是转瞬即逝的美事。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">全面放开二孩生育虽然有利于缓解人口老龄化和改善未来劳动力供给，但不会改变中国基本的人口走势，无法逆转已经出现的少子老龄化、劳动年龄人口下降和人口负增长等大趋势。事实上，全面二孩政策的好处是非常有限的，因为它是迟到的“亡羊补牢”式的改革。显然，10只羊跑了1只还是9只再补牢效果截然不同，全面二孩新政错过了改革的战略机遇期（1990-2010年），“机遇之羊”都跑得差不多了，所以全面二孩的改革意义很大但效果很小。全面二孩新政之后多生了多少人呢?根据统计，2016年新生儿为1750万，仅比2015年增加100万，与各界预估相差甚远。根据生育规律，预计出生小高峰可能出现在2017年，但在普遍低生育的形势下，对新增人口数不容过于乐观。全国妇联的调查报告显示，有生育二孩意愿的为20.5%，不想生育二孩的为53.3%，不确定是否生育二孩的为26.2%，不想和不确定生育二孩的家庭合计为79.5%，综合来看，有一半以上的一孩家庭没有生育二孩的意愿。这说明，所谓生育井喷现象言过其实，全面二孩新政和单独二孩一样“遇冷”了。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">人口是影响经济社会可持续发展和文明兴衰的基本因素和核心变量。当下，中国不得不面临少子老龄化和人口生态失衡的严峻挑战，绝对不可掉以轻心！在低生育时代，当务之急是要充分释放全面二孩的政策效能，进一步完善生育友好的社会政策和公共服务体系，努力降低家庭生育成本，使尽可能多的年轻家庭想生敢生，从整体上提振生育率到适度水平（总和生育率达到近更替水平，1.8-2.5），跳出?；姆摹俺蜕氏葳濉?。同时，需要进一步放宽生育权限和自主决策空间，彻底还权于民，创造自主自由生育的社会环境、鼓励奖励生育的友好环境以及生育光荣生育有功的文化氛围。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：李敏杰 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：人口生育全面</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" 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