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data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">张敬伟察哈尔学会高级研究员中国人民大学重阳金融研究院客座研究员</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">以支持恐怖主义的“罪名”，中东小国卡塔尔被沙特为首的阿拉伯兄弟施以断交惩罚。这场中东逊尼派国家的内讧，其实有着美国的影子。特朗普总统并不否认他策划了这场借力打力的游戏：美国策划、沙特主演、埃及、巴林和阿联酋和其他穆斯林国家跟进。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">不过，美国也传出了不同声音，不希望沙特为首的海湾四国对卡塔尔逼得太紧。毕竟，卡塔尔也是美国中东反恐的重要盟友。在另一个海湾国家科威特介入调解之后，沙特、埃及、阿联酋和巴林四国开出了苛刻的13项条件，而且要求卡塔尔10日内必须答复。</p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="/upload/resources/image/2017/06/26/1835225.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2017/06/26/1835225_500x500.jpg" title="0283126c341170a10a0ac1e9b7cdfd78" alt="0283126c341170a10a0ac1e9b7cdfd78" suffix="jpg"/></a></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这些条件包括：和伊朗断交、关闭半岛电视台，停止土耳其在卡驻军和与之举行联合军演；切断与穆斯林兄弟会、“伊斯兰国”、“基地”组织、黎巴嫩真主党的关系，并正式宣布上述组织为恐怖组织；在政治、经济、军事等方面完全与阿拉伯国家站在一起。即使答应上述条件，四国也要对卡塔尔的承诺进行10年严格审核。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">四个阿拉伯兄弟对卡塔尔的施压，变成了监护人对被监护人的监管。在汹涌的民意反对下，卡塔尔政府认为四国限制卡特尔的主权，明确指出不能答应四国条件。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">从主权国家的立场，若卡塔尔屈从四国条件，就是被其操纵的傀儡了。显然，这也不符合卡塔尔一贯小国干大事的政策，以及维持其本国主体性的外交原则。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">现在的情势下，卡塔尔一方面难以承受来自阿拉伯四国的断交封锁之痛。因为四国封锁，足以将卡塔尔困死。但是，如果卡塔尔屈服于四国的最后通牒，卡塔尔就不再有主权国家的尊严，该国长期坚持的独立自主外交也就化为乌有。更要者，半岛电视台堪称中东地区最具影响力和自由化的媒体，如果这个电视台也被关闭，卡塔尔在全球的软实力也就丧失殆尽了。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">不答应沙特四国的条件，卡塔尔有生存?；淮鹩λ墓跫?，卡塔尔就丧失了国家主权?？ㄋ芊褡叱鑫；С悄?？</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">解铃还须系铃人。卡塔尔和沙特为首的逊尼派国家有过节，并非始于今日。海湾兄弟，对于卡塔尔作为小国的张扬早就愤愤不平，以往也有断交威胁，只是没有像现在决绝。内中原因，除了沙特等国已经忍无可忍，更要者是美国的背后推力。就前者而言，沙特最不能忍受的是卡塔尔和伊朗的关系，本次断交缘起也是因为卡塔尔领导人认可伊朗在中东的大国地位。至于阿拉伯世界的另一大国埃及，早就不满卡塔尔和穆斯林兄弟会的关系?；褂芯褪?，卡塔尔允许土耳其在卡驻军，也犯了沙特为首的阿拉伯国家的大忌。在沙特和埃及看来，他们才是阿拉伯世界的大国。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在四国看来，阿拉伯国家，尤其是逊尼派阿拉伯国家，都应该和他们站在一个阵营。什叶派的伊朗和沙特等国既有宗教冲突，也是异族国家；土耳其虽然是逊尼派国家，但也是异族国家。更糟糕的是，伊朗和土耳其，都是区域大国，对沙特为首的阿拉伯世界构成了地缘政治威胁。卡塔尔和两个异族大国眉来眼去，沙特为首的阿拉伯国家自然要对卡塔尔教训一番。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">这些都不是最重要的。关键是美国和沙特的关系“全血复活”。特朗普访沙，修复了奥巴马时代不尴不尬的美沙关系，双方签订的天价军事合同，让美沙双方都很满意。尤其是沙特一方，有特朗普政府的支持，在中东地区的底气更足。此番率领四国向卡塔尔全力开火就是明证，此外老国王也换侄为子变更了王储，一改沙特王室兄终弟及的王位继承传统，让父子相袭成为可能。特朗普总统坦诚他参与了阿拉伯世界的“断交游戏”，佐证了美国才是真正的幕后推手，沙特等国不过利用美国的支持顺势向不听话的卡塔尔发起了外交攻击而已。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">但是，由于美国不希望沙特等国将卡塔尔逼到绝境，尤其是逼到伊朗的阵营，美国会要求沙特等国对卡的教训有所节制。事实上，美国国务卿和国防部长已经要求沙特等国对卡塔尔“手下留情”。毕竟，卡塔尔也是美国的中东盟友，而且在打击伊斯兰国（IS）方面发挥着重要作用。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">伊朗和土耳其，尤其是土耳其的艾尔多安政府，要表示对受困的卡塔尔政府提供全面支持。若?；中⒄梗程氐裙涂ㄋ哪谮в锌赡芤⒅卸厍娜婊炻?，这显然不为美国所乐见。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">由于沙特等国虽然对卡发出了严厉的最后通牒，但是对卡塔尔不接受条件并无后续动作。因而，在美国协调下，沙特等国也只是对卡塔尔一个教训而已，棒喝其不要太过任性。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">经此危机，卡塔尔也会小心翼翼，谨慎发展对伊、土关系，在美国和沙特等国可忍受的范围内“独立自主”。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：李敏杰 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：卡塔尔沙特美国</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" 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