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inherit;">新华社多哈6月20日电(国际观察)化解卡塔尔断交?；行枋比?/span></p><div style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者杨元勇</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">卡塔尔外交大臣穆罕默德19日表示，卡塔尔不会和断交国进行任何谈判，除非这些国家解除对卡塔尔的封锁。同日，阿联酋外交事务国务部长加尔贾什表示，如果卡塔尔不放弃“支持极端分子”的立场，邻国对它的“孤立”将持续数年。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">分析人士认为，双方的上述表态显示，卡塔尔遭遇的断交?；淌奔淠谏心鸦?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">断交国要价高</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">本月5日，巴林、沙特、阿联酋、埃及、也门等国纷纷宣布与卡塔尔断交，指责卡塔尔支持恐怖主义活动并破坏地区安全局势。断交后，沙特等国叫停了与卡塔尔的物资交易，禁止卡塔尔的飞机、船只使用本国领空、港口，要求卡塔尔公民自断交之日起14天内离境。沙特还封闭了与卡塔尔的陆地边界，而这是卡塔尔唯一的陆地边界。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">6日，沙特外交部在推特上提出了化解危机的相关条件：卡塔尔停止干涉海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会(海合会)国家内部事务；驱逐反对海合会国家的“异己”分子；停止怂恿媒体反对海合会国家和埃及；停止支持穆斯林兄弟会(穆兄会)和收留其成员；不得允许海合会国家反对派人员加入卡塔尔国籍；不得允许宗教界人士利用清真寺和媒体从事反对海湾国家的行动。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">据部分阿拉伯媒体透露，断交国将来还可能提出更多条件，其中包括：卡塔尔应将穆兄会领导人直接遣送到埃及；关闭半岛媒体集团(半岛电视台)等。沙特外交大臣朱拜尔16日说，与卡塔尔断交的巴林、沙特、阿联酋、埃及四个阿拉伯国家正在草拟对卡塔尔的“不满”清单。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">从目前情况看，断交国提出的化解?；跫酆芨撸ㄋ赡苣岩酝耆?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">卡塔尔有底牌</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">面对断交国展现的强硬立场，卡塔尔虽然没有采取直接的报复措施，并表现出愿意谈判的姿态，但也并不是一味示弱?？ㄋ饨徊糠⒈砩魉?，沙特、阿联酋、巴林决定与卡塔尔断交是毫无理由的，卡塔尔是海合会国家，尊重其他国家，从不干涉他国内部事务，履行着反对恐怖和激进行为的义务?？ㄋ饨淮蟪寄潞蹦虑康鳎叭魏稳宋奕ǜ缮嫖颐堑哪诓渴挛瘛?，卡塔尔外交政策不容谈判。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">分析人士指出，断交危机发生后，卡塔尔展现出受害者和无辜者的姿态，博得了国际社会的同情?？此圃獾焦铝⒌目ㄋ矣诓扇　叭碇写病钡淖颂彩且蛭浠褂涤胁簧儆欣跫?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">首先，巨大的天然气出口量为卡塔尔增加了应对断交?；牡灼??？ㄋ烊黄⒘课痪尤虻谌夯烊黄隹诹棵腥蚴孜?，卡塔尔向阿联酋供应的天然气占到阿联酋天然气使用总量的40%左右。虽然卡塔尔已表示不会切断对阿联酋的天然气供应，但阿联酋不会对此掉以轻心，因此在断交风波中应当不会走得太远。而沙特也不得不顾及阿联酋的利益。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">其次，卡塔尔资金充足。根据卡塔尔商会的资料，卡塔尔主权财富基金已达3350亿美元，卡塔尔还拥有436亿美元的外汇储备。对于国小人少的卡塔尔而言，这样的资金数额委实不小。巨额财富为卡塔尔从断交国以外的国家进口必需品提供了可能。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第三，卡塔尔在本地区并非遭到所有国家孤立。沙特等国宣布与卡塔尔断交后，土耳其政府力挺卡塔尔并出面斡旋。土耳其已向卡塔尔输送5000吨食品。土总统埃尔多安本月早些时候说，没有卡塔尔支持恐怖主义这回事，土耳其“将继续给予卡塔尔各种支持”。在海合会成员国中，阿曼和科威特也没有与卡塔尔断交。此外，摩洛哥、阿尔及利亚和突尼斯等阿拉伯国家也都表示中立。伊拉克则明确反对断交和切断与卡塔尔的陆?？胀础?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">化解?；谐雎?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">尽管断交风波的双方目前仍然处于僵持状态，但化解?；膊⒎遣豢赡?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">观察人士指出，沙特等国虽然对卡塔尔提出多项指控，但断交风波的直接导火索是卡塔尔通讯社遭黑客入侵并发布了对沙特等国不友好和支持伊朗及巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动(哈马斯)的消息。美国媒体报道称，美安全部门目前收集到的情报指向了俄罗斯黑客，认为他们是攻击卡塔尔通讯社、植入假新闻的幕后黑手。因此，解决此次危机的大致脉络可能是：美国出面促和，将断交原因归咎于“俄罗斯黑客入侵”，使以沙特为首的断交国和卡塔尔都有台阶可下，在卡塔尔做出部分让步后，双方关系逐渐恢复正常。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">此外，美国总统特朗普已表示，愿意帮助解决卡塔尔遭遇的断交风波，提议相关国家领导人到白宫开会解决问题?？仆匕Ｃ锥?国家元首)萨巴赫等中东国家领导人也在设法斡旋，争取早日解决这一危机。</p></div><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p> </div> 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