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id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bw_750 fl"> <h1 class="pv_title_2"> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="site fr"><a >首页</a>><a href="/sy/yw/">要闻 </a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/sy/yw/">要闻</a></span> </h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">伊朗大?。郝彻崮芊裥Φ阶詈?/span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2017年05月18日 16:14 | 作者:穆东黄灵 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新华社</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社德黑兰５月１８日电（国际观察）伊朗大?。郝彻崮芊裥Φ阶詈?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者穆东　黄灵</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">伊朗定于１９日举行第１２届总统选举。１８日，德黑兰民众抓住投票前的最后机会走上街头，散发传单、呼喊口号，为支持的总统候选人拉票。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">分析人士认为，身为伊朗改革派代表人物的现任总统鲁哈尼在此次选举中面临保守派对手的有力竞争，虽然他成功连任的可能性很大，但也无法排除最后一刻出现意外的可能。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong>两大阵营针锋相对</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">包括鲁哈尼在内共有６名总统候选人通过宪法监护委员会的资格审查，拿到了此次选举的“入场证”。不过，其中两位候选人在选前相继宣布退出。剩下的四名候选人分别是鲁哈尼、保守派宗教人士易卜拉欣·莱希、曾任总统顾问的穆斯塔法·米尔萨利姆以及前副总统穆斯塔法·哈希米·塔巴。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">外界普遍认为，真正的对决将在鲁哈尼和莱希之间展开，他们一个代表改革派，一个属于强硬保守派?；厥渍鼍貉」?，两人代表的两大阵营之间火药味颇浓。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">鲁哈尼反复强调，他履行了上台时的承诺，促成伊核协议的签署，使伊朗与国际社会的关系得到改善。他说，伊朗应该继续温和发展之路，拒绝自我孤立。他还批评保守势力的阻挠“损害了国家利益”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">莱希则指责鲁哈尼未能促成西方在伊核协议签署后解除所有对伊制裁，伊朗经济依然在衰退。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong>寻求连任具备优势</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">４年前，鲁哈尼提出的结束伊朗国际孤立状态、创造更自由社会的主张深得人心，因此以绝对优势当选总统。此次竞选连任，鲁哈尼仍具备不少优势。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">首先，他依然拥有广泛的民意基础和政治影响力。去年伊朗议会选举以改革派和温和保守派联盟获胜告终，这在一定程度上表明了伊朗民众对鲁哈尼执政的认可。获得这两派支持，无疑增加了鲁哈尼参选的底气。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">而且，伊朗年青一代选民渴望改革和发展，普遍认同鲁哈尼有望为他们带来一个更开放的伊朗。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">其次，伊朗总统连任两届基本已成惯例，从历史上看，伊朗总统无法连任的情况很少出现。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">不过，在鲁哈尼任期即将结束之际，伊朗面临的经济、外交压力越来越大，也给他竞选连任带来不利影响。在伊核协议签署之前，鲁哈尼就已受到伊朗国内反美势力的反对。伊核协议签署后伊朗经济依旧不振，更为强硬保守派攻击鲁哈尼的与西方和解政策提供了口实。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊也几次提及伊核协议没有带来良性效果，引发外界猜测他与鲁哈尼发生分歧。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><strong>竞争对手不容小觑</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">鲁哈尼谋求连任的最大竞争对手莱希是哈梅内伊的坚定追随者。在另一位强硬保守派候选人退出后，预计莱希将吸引更多保守派支持者的选票。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">莱希曾担任过司法部长等要职，如今在一所大学担任法学教授。竞选期间，他誓言消除贫困、打击腐败，赢得了不少农村贫困地区选民支持。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">同时，莱希也是伊朗专家会议成员，专家会议是选举伊朗最高领袖的最高权力机构。哈梅内伊曾称赞莱?！爸档眯湃?，经验丰富”，这令许多人猜想他可能成为哈梅内伊的接班人。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">分析人士指出，不论鲁哈尼和莱希谁当选，伊朗的改革之路都不平坦。现有政体框架内，鲁哈尼即使连任也将受到掣肘，很难推动世俗化改革；莱希更是坚决反对伊朗进行西方式的改革，若他胜选，伊朗社会或将回归保守模式。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：秦云 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：伊朗大选鲁哈尼</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 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