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id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">当前欧美多国在贸易问题上犯糊涂的政治人物越来越多,这带来了经济问题,同时也暴露了政治问题</p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="/upload/resources/image/2017/02/24/1585206.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2017/02/24/1585206.jpg" title="t0147fccee8111a808d" alt="t0147fccee8111a808d" suffix="jpg"/></a></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">搞贸易?；ぶ饕迦缤熬米陨薄?这是经济学界的一个普遍结论。然而,一段时间以来,不少欧美政治人物却选择“迎难而上”,认为凭借自己的“聪明”,可以逆规律而行。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">投身法国总统大选的极右翼政党国民阵线主席玛丽娜·勒庞把自己的经济政策定义为“机智的?；ぶ饕濉?宣称要通过竖高墙来恢复“法国制造”的荣耀。大西洋另一侧,当前美国政治中?；ぶ饕宓奈兜酪埠芘ā９嶂械墓埠偷橙苏酝冀⒁惶住氨呔车髡敝贫?也就是说进口要纳税,而出口免税。甚至还有人谋划打响贸易战,精心计算着损失收益比。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">“没有什么其他领域能像贸易一样,让政客和经济学家有那么大的分歧。”这是哈佛大学政治经济学家丹尼·罗德里克的一句名言。其实,那些自认为聪明的欧美政治人物多数不是不明白保护主义在经济上走不通,只是在装傻。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">经济学家普遍认为,限制自由贸易最终只会给经济体带来净损失。搞?；ぶ饕寤崽Ц吖谙殉杀?减少国内企业长期竞争力,而且容易引发国际争端,进而有损国际体系稳定。封闭经济体难有出路,这也早已被历史反复证明。然而,西方一些政治人物看待贸易问题往往有着另一套逻辑。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一组意大利经济学家围绕美国贸易?；の侍馑龅牧较钛芯磕馨镏嗣强辞逭庵侄捞芈呒?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一般而言,美国参议院相比众议院,在贸易?；ぶ饕逦侍馍闲巳じ恍?。对此,学术界通常的解释是参议员要代表的人口和区域大于众议员,因此看问题的视野更宽一点。但是,几位意大利学者通过研究1973年到2005年间美国参议院关于贸易问题的29次唱名表决发现,每个参议员对?；ぶ饕宓摹靶巳ぁ币膊皇且怀刹槐洹υ谌纹谧詈罅侥甑牟我樵泵飨愿阆蛴谥С置骋妆；ぶ饕宕胧?。由此看,决定美国国会议员对贸易问题态度的关键,恐怕不是视野,而是任期。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">与之类似,另一份研究发现,美国总统总是在第一任期的最后一年更有可能在世贸组织发起贸易诉讼。2012年9月17日,奥巴马政府针对中国汽车零部件生产企业向世贸组织发起贸易诉讼,而同一天,正在寻求连任的奥巴马到访俄亥俄州进行竞选活动。该州是美国汽车制造重镇,也是总统大选的关键州。2004年,大选前一个月,寻求连任的布什就空客补贴问题把欧盟告上了世贸组织。这份研究并没有发现总统在第二任期最后一年会表现出类似的政策倾向,原因或许很简单——美国总统只能连续干两任。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">不难看出,“聪明”的欧美政治人物在思考贸易问题时,算的并不是经济账,而是政治账。那么为什么欧美政治人物算政治账时会倾向于支持贸易?；ぶ饕?相关研究给出的解释是,尽管保护主义政策将给消费者和经济体带来整体损失,但这种损失往往滞后显现,且经济体内分摊损失的人数很大,每个人的“痛感”不会很强烈。与此同时,能从保护主义政策中受益的那部分人,则在短时间内就能尝到甜头,且分到每个人头上的好处都很大。另外,这部分人相较普通消费者,往往更加组织化、政治化?；痪浠八??；ぶ饕逭呔」茏芴褰以斐伤鹗?却能通过迎合一小部分人的急切要求,迅速转化为选票或者政治献金。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">以此逻辑可以看到,那些支持?；ぶ饕宓呐访勒椭徊还窃诠页て诶婧妥陨矶唐谡涡星橹?选择了后者。但不能忘记的是,规律毕竟是规律,不是靠“小聪明”就能逃避。搞?；ぶ饕迦缤炎约汗亟谖葑?看似躲过了风吹雨打,但也隔绝了阳光和空气。眼下,欧美在贸易问题上犯糊涂的政治人物越来越多,这带来了经济问题,同时也暴露了政治问题。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘小源 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：?；ぶ饕?#32;贸易欧美政治人物小聪明</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> </ul> </div> <div style="height:40px"></div>  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div style="height:40px"></div><script charset="gbk" src="http://p.tanx.com/ex?i=mm_58500226_6900940_24396084"></script></div>  <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_55"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a4"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/sp_t2.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" 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