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text-align: left;">2016年12月4日,意大利宪法改革公投失败收场。最终计票结果显示,投“否”的民众比率高达59.1%,较之投“是”的民众比率高出接近20个百分点。随后,意大利总理伦齐宣布辞职。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">作为欧元区第三大经济体,此次公投不仅关乎该国自身政治经济走向,也影响到欧洲一体化前景,因而备受国际社会关注。伴随公投结果出炉,金融市场已作出反应,意大利十年期国债收益率进一步上升,近期已明显走低的欧元再次大跌,创2015年3月以来新低。此外,公投结果对于欧洲经济政治走势的影响也须跟踪观察。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">纵观此次公投自2014年启动到如今尘埃落定,意大利民意走向与政局演变的互动值得回味。根据意内政部的统计,此次公投投票率为68.5%,明显高于此前大多数预测,说明当前意民众借助公投表达自身诉求的愿望强烈。从策略上看,伦齐过早地将个人政治前途与公投结果捆绑,从而被反对党“偷梁换柱”地将公投宣传成对伦齐政府是否满意的投票,这无疑是公投失败的重要原因。然而,公投惨败的结果也的确体现了意大利当前的民意,反映出民众矛盾又迷茫的复杂心理。矛盾之处在于,人们一方面对现实强烈不满,求变心切,另一方面又断然否决旨在“大刀阔斧”改变现实的宪法改革;迷茫之处在于,许多人投票主要为宣泄情绪,他们不信任现任政府,却又找不到改善国家现状的其他依托。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">实际上,伦齐可谓是近年来意大利最为锐意进取的总理,上任以来在推进改革、促进经济复苏与改善民生方面做了不少切实努力,包括推行劳动力市场改革、启动宪法改革、启动选举法改革、成功举办世博会、与欧盟讨价还价争取财政灵活度、有序组织地震救灾行动等。然而,受制于全球经济复苏乏力、改革效应尚需时日、欧盟经济“紧缩”主基调未变等一系列因素,上述努力并未令意大利经济强劲复苏,尤其是未能明显改善就业状况。目前,意大利整体失业率仍高达11%,青年失业率更是超过36%,加之难民问题导致社会治安状况趋于恶化,民众对政府的不满情绪越发严重。这为反建制的“五星运动”党以及正在向极右翼倾斜的“北方联盟”党的发展提供了空间与土壤。反过来,民粹政党的宣传造势又加剧了民众对现任政府的怨气?？梢运?在民意矛盾迷茫与民粹政党崛起相互强化的大背景下,公投失败并不意外。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">放眼欧洲,民众不满情绪与民粹政党发展“相伴共生”的状况并非意大利所特有。近几年,在经济持续低迷、失业率高企、难民危机、恐怖袭击等多重压力之下,对现状不满、求新求变、不信任乃至“厌倦”传统政党与政客的民众情绪在欧洲多国蔓延,持反全球化、反欧洲一体化、反移民主张的民粹主义政党发展势头迅猛。这些政党在不少国家已很有影响力,如法国的“国民阵线”、西班牙的“我们能”、荷兰的自由党、意大利的“五星运动”、德国的“另类选择党”等,有的已严重动摇传统政党的执政基础。这些政党的崛起加剧了欧洲政党碎片化、政治民粹化的趋势,未来这一趋势会发展至何种程度,将主要取决于欧洲整体经济社会乃至安全状况的演变。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">就中长期而言,意大利宪法改革公投失败不仅不利于本国政治稳定与经济复苏,对欧洲经济政治前景亦将产生负面影响。首先,作为欧元区最大的重债国,意大利公投失败将进一步拖延欧洲整体改革进程。宪法改革搁浅意味着意大利推进后续一系列经济改革将面临更多困难,而这必将拖累欧洲整体改革进程,进而不利于欧洲经济复苏。其次,公投失败使欧洲一体化前景再蒙阴影。虽然短期内极端民粹政党“五星运动”上台执政的可能性并不大,但是公投失败造成的政治动荡无疑有利于该党继续扩大影响,其反欧主张将进一步影响民众。此外,当前意大利银行业正处于通过资本重组解决巨额坏账问题的关键期,若因政治动荡冲击投资者信心进而导致重组失败,也有可能拖累欧元区银行体系陷入困境。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘小源 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：公投意大利改革政党伦齐</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2016-12-05/1190494.shtml">公投将给意大利带来什么</a></li> </ul> </div> <div style="height:40px"></div>  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div style="height:40px"></div><script charset="gbk" src="http://p.tanx.com/ex?i=mm_58500226_6900940_24396084"></script></div>  <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_55"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a4"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/sp_t2.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="ul2 bh_304"> <li><a href="/c/2018-01-29/1945837.shtml" title="贵阳机场冬日为客机除冰保证飞行安全" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2018/01/29/2090164_150x101c.jpg" alt="贵阳机场冬日为客机除冰保证飞行安全" /><ins>贵阳机场冬日为客机除冰保证飞行安全</ins></a></li> <li><a href="/c/2018-01-29/1945797.shtml" title="保加利亚古城欢庆“中国年”" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2018/01/29/2090144_150x101c.jpg" alt="保加利亚古城欢庆“中国年”" /><ins>保加利亚古城欢庆“中国年”</ins></a></li> <li><a href="/c/2018-01-29/1945730.shtml" title="河北塞罕坝出现日晕景观" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2018/01/29/2090129_150x101c.jpg" alt="河北塞罕坝出现日晕景观" /><ins>河北塞罕坝出现日晕景观</ins></a></li> <li><a href="/c/2018-01-29/1945711.shtml" title="尼尼斯托高票连任芬兰总统" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2018/01/29/2090106_150x101c.jpg" alt="尼尼斯托高票连任芬兰总统" /><ins>尼尼斯托高票连任芬兰总统</ins></a></li> <li><a href="/c/2018-01-29/1945687.shtml" title="第30届非盟首脑会议在埃塞俄比亚开幕" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2018/01/29/2090097_150x101c.jpg" alt="第30届非盟首脑会议在埃塞俄比亚开幕" /><ins>第30届非盟首脑会议在埃塞俄比亚开幕</ins></a></li> <li><a href="/c/2018-01-29/1945596.shtml" title="保加利亚举办国际面具节" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2018/01/29/2090068_150x101c.jpg" alt="保加利亚举办国际面具节" /><ins>保加利亚举办国际面具节</ins></a></li> <li><a href="/c/2018-01-29/1945645.shtml" title="叙政府代表表示反对由美国等五国提出的和解方案" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2018/01/29/2090083_150x101c.jpg" alt="叙政府代表表示反对由美国等五国提出的和解方案" /><ins>叙政府代表表示反对由美国等五国提出的和解方案</ins></a></li> <li><a href="/c/2018-01-29/1945567.shtml" title="洪都拉斯首位连任总统宣誓就职" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2018/01/29/2090035_150x101c.jpg" alt="洪都拉斯首位连任总统宣誓就职" /><ins>洪都拉斯首位连任总统宣誓就职</ins></a></li> </ul> </div>  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div align="center"><script type="text/javascript">var cpro_id = "u1693387";</script><script src="http://cpro.baidustatic.com/cpro/ui/c.js" type="text/javascript"></script></div></div>  </div> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bw_250 fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div style="height:255;"><script charset="gbk" src="http://p.tanx.com/ex?i=mm_58500226_6900940_48216291"></script></div></div>  <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a2"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/pl_t6.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_15 bh_293"> <ul class="political_ul3"> <li id="i2i2jyu4k" class="li1"><a href="/c/2018-01-31/1949116.shtml" title="正视美国的科技竞争焦虑感" target="_blank">正视美国的科技竞争焦虑感</a></li> </ul> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="box1">  <div style="width:240px;height:345px;"><script src="http://mobile.rmzxb.com.cn/api/dzbCache.php"></script></div> </div>  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div style="height:255;"><script charset="gbk" src="http://p.tanx.com/ex?i=mm_58500226_6900940_24394056"></script></div></div>  <div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bw_250 bh_385 fr bg_f6f6f6"> <ul id="menu2"> <li onMouseOver="setTab(2,0)"><a href="javascript:" class="hover">微博</a></li> <li onMouseOver="setTab(2,1)"><a href="javascript:" >博客</a></li> </ul> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="main2 bd_t" id="main2"> <ul> <li> <div class="i2i2jyu4k" id="sliderbox3" class="sliderbox_box"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="sliderbox" style="display:block; 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z-index:0;"> <a title="秦百兰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1075.jpg" class="img" /><ins>秦百兰</ins></a> <a title="张自立" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1074.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张自立</ins></a> <a title="郭松海" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1072.jpg" class="img" /><ins>郭松海</ins></a> <a title="李兰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1051.jpg" class="img" /><ins>李兰</ins></a> <a title="房兴耀" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1041.jpg" class="img" /><ins>房兴耀</ins></a> <a title="池慧" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1033.jpg" class="img" /><ins>池慧</ins></a> <a title="柳斌杰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/13/635.jpg" class="img" /><ins>柳斌杰</ins></a> <a title="曹义孙" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/175.jpg" class="img" /><ins>曹义孙</ins></a> <a title="毛新宇" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/66.jpg" class="img" /><ins>毛新宇</ins></a> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="sliderbox" style="opacity:0; z-index:0;"> <a title="詹国枢" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/172.jpg" class="img" /><ins>詹国枢</ins></a> <a href="ti" title="朱永新" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/69.jpg" class="img" /><ins>朱永新</ins></a> <a title="张晓梅" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/171.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张晓梅</ins></a> <a title="焦加良" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/169.jpg" class="img" /><ins>焦加良</ins></a> <a title="张连起" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/167.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张连起</ins></a> <a title="龙墨" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/129.jpg" class="img" /><ins>龙墨</ins></a> <a title="王名" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/88.jpg" class="img" /><ins>王名</ins></a> <a title="何水法" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/168.jpg" class="img" /><ins>何水法</ins></a> <a title="李延生" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/166.jpg" class="img" /><ins>李延生</ins></a> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="sliderbox" style="opacity:0; 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