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style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: inherit;">【环球网报道记者马丽】贸易?；ぶ饕迳逝ê竦?/span>美国共和党<span style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: inherit;">候选人特朗普在</span>美国<span style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: inherit;">大选中获胜，成为继奥巴马之后新一届总统。</span>日本<span style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: inherit;">共同社11月9日分析称，这一大选结果使跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)无法生效的可能性上升。人们强烈担忧美日乃至全球的贸易和投资将萎缩。新政权若明确走美元贬值路线，对日元升值压力增大、日本经济和企业业绩下滑的担心也将加剧。日本财务省、金融厅和央行9日召开紧急会议商讨如何稳定动荡的市场，然而对经济停滞的不安或将持续下去。</span><br/></p><div class="i2i2jyu4k" id="text" style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">提出“美国第一主义”的特朗普一直反对会使日本汽车大量进入美国、减少美国国内就业的TPP。TPP若没有经济规模最大的美国的批准就不能生效。日本政府希望在奥巴马政府任期内批准手续能取得进展，但有关人士认为十分困难，因为“共和党议员很难在议会投赞成票”。若特朗普的反对态度不改变，12个国家的协议将面临瓦解的?；?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">特朗普曾表示，有意与日本等各国分别缔结贸易协定以代替TPP，有可能撤销奥巴马政府在TPP中承诺的免除汽车等工业产品关税的内容。TPP的停滞也可能给与欧盟和亚洲各国的经济合作磋商投下阴影，安倍政府或不得不重新审视贸易政策。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">报道称，围绕汇率政策，特朗普将日本看作是 “汇率操纵国”，一直批评日本在引导日元贬值。在如此强硬态度的背景下，9日外汇市场上日元汇率飙升。日本财务省财务官浅川雅嗣在与央行等的会议后表示，“市场上出现了投机动向。若动向可能进一步持续，将采取必要的措施”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">然而美国新政权下，日本若进行市场干预，美方可能采取提高关税等对抗措施。日本综合研究所井上肇称，“如果不应干预的观点蔓延，日元升值可能加速?！?nbsp;</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">当对市场大幅波动下经济急速下滑的担忧升温，日本央行将考虑加码货币宽松，此外政府也可能通过财政刺激措施来支撑经济。如果接受了特朗普要求的“日方负担更多的美军驻留经费”，日本将不得不减少其它经费或增发国债，实现财政重建将更加遥远。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">对日本企业来说，美国是最大的出口对象国，包括投资产生的收益等，2015年的经常收支盈余约为13.3万亿日元(约合人民币870亿元)。虽然也有观点认为特朗普的积极财政政策将对美国经济产生正面影响，但如果变成“企业投资萎缩，贸易也缩小”的局面，将对日本的创收能力造成打击。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">日元升值使得进口价格下降，将给日本摆脱通缩泼冷水，还会使出口企业的业绩下滑。日本纤维厂家世联(SEIREN)董事长兼首席执行官(CEO)川田达男称“可能出现比雷曼?；现氐奈；?，某大型物流企业干部也担忧地认为：“国内外的经济恶化将无法避免”。</p></div><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：薛晓钰 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：特朗普 TPP 日本经济?；?/p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" 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