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<span id="a" style="">新闻分析：总统选举后的黎巴嫩依然危机重重</span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2016年11月01日 20:41 | 作者:李良勇 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新华社</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社贝鲁特１１月１日电新闻分析：总统选举后的黎巴嫩依然?；刂?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">新华社记者李良勇</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">黎巴嫩国民议会１０月３１日选举基督教政党“自由爱国运动”创始人、议员米歇尔·奥恩为新一任总统，结束了黎巴嫩长达两年半之久的无总统状态。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一些分析人士认为，尽管总统人选悬而未决的僵局已破，但长期困扰黎巴嫩的政治?；⑽吹玫礁拘越饩?，甚至可能会因新总统产生而出现新问题。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">首先，奥恩当选后面临的一个问题是“靠哪边站”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">有观察人士披露，奥恩这次当选是因为得到三个政治阵营的支持，即被视作叙利亚盟友的什叶派真主党阵营、基督教马龙派“黎巴嫩力量”阵营和由前总理萨阿德·哈里里领导的逊尼派“未来阵线”阵营。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">奥恩先前坚决反对叙利亚，１９９１年至２００５年更是因此被迫流亡法国。然而，２００６年他与真主党签署备忘录从而加入亲叙利亚的行列。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">先前一直反对奥恩竞选总统的哈里里在１０月２０日突然宣布支持他，并称支持奥恩是为了挫败真主党想要制造黎巴嫩长期无总统状态的企图。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">根据一些消息人士的说法，哈里里与奥恩达成的协议约定，奥恩当选总统后将提名哈里里出任总理，奥恩同意黎巴嫩保持中立，免受叙利亚等地区冲突影响。而且，由于哈里里亲沙特的立场没有变化，如果他出任总理，将不会访问叙利亚。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">有分析指出，真主党和哈里里的“未来阵线”一向对立，这意味着奥恩上台后可能很难在两者之间保持平衡，倾向谁都会引发另一方不满，这或为黎巴嫩出现新的动荡局势埋下伏笔。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">其次，选出总统并不意味着黎巴嫩各方政治分歧业已弥合，新内阁职位和权力的分配才是“真正争斗”的开始。而且，即便组阁成功，新政府在执政时也可能受到各方掣肘，甚至可能因各方要求无法调和而夭折。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">正因如此，有媒体分析说，哈里里被任命为总理几无悬念，真正的考验是他接下来如何组阁。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">根据黎巴嫩宪法，政府部长职务必须按照基督徒和伊斯兰教徒各占５０％的比例分配，两大宗教内各教派也必须按比例分配，但不规定某一职务分配给某一教派。这为各派博弈留下较大空间。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">黎巴嫩议长贝里先前说，如果哈里里被授权组建政府，可能需要至少五、六个月才能完成，意指组阁过程可能会持续至明年议会选举时。事实上，哈里里２００９年首次出任总理时，组阁用了５个月时间。而现任总理萨拉姆领衔的民族团结政府，更是历经１０个月才组建完成。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">再者，奥恩当选还可能引发地区局势以及其他国家对黎政策变化的连锁反应。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">舆论认为，黎巴嫩总统选举之争实质是地区大国沙特与伊朗之间的力量博弈，其背后更有着美国和俄罗斯的影子。在一些分析人士看来，这次奥恩当选是沙特被动退却或主动调整战略的结果。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">分析人士指出，受国际油价下跌、深陷叙利亚和也门冲突以及与美国关系“走冷”等因素影响，沙特无心也无力继续过多介入黎巴嫩事务，因而不再把黎巴嫩作为优先选项。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">不过，就在黎巴嫩议会举行总统选举投票前夕，沙特海湾事务大臣萨米尔到访黎巴嫩，并会晤除真主党以外的黎巴嫩各主要派别领导人，但他没有发表任何声明。媒体分析，这是沙特对奥恩的默认，也是在传递沙特仍然重视对黎关系的信息。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">黎巴嫩《生活报》援引消息人士的话报道，萨米尔到访黎巴嫩时曾说，沙特会在奥恩当选总统后邀请他访问，奥恩也表示愿与沙特建立“更好关系”。（完）</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：秦云 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p 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