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jiathis_txt jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code_mini/jia.js?uid=1399539302485450" charset="utf-8"></script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一段时间里，蒙古国内很多人都相信，这个仿佛一夜间从牧业国家变成矿业大国的内陆国，成为“草原加拿大”只是时间问题。但倏忽间风云骤变，蒙古国陷入了?；?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">8月18日，蒙古国央行宣布将指标利率上调4.5%至15%，以应对本币贬值所带来的金融?；?。四年货币贬值58%，蒙古财长直言不讳，国家经济陷入了?；?。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">事实上，直到2012年，蒙古还是个令人啧啧称叹的“草原经济奇?！保鹤?000年起至2011年年均增长率达到9%，最高峰时竟高达17.5%（2011年），2012、2013两年虽有所放缓，也分别高达12.4%和11.7%，自建国起就一直“满打满算过日子”的“马背国家”一时间鸟枪换炮，从社会福利到民众生活方式都发生了翻天覆地的变化。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一段时间里，蒙古国内外似乎人人也都在预言，这个仿佛一夜间从牧业国家变成矿业大国的内陆国，成为“草原加拿大”只是时间问题。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">但倏忽间风云骤变：2014年蒙古GDP增速一下滑落到7.8%，创2000年以来最低纪录，翌年更进一步放缓至2.3%，而IMF今年6月估计的2016年蒙古GDP增幅则只有0.4%，甚至有更悲观的观察家预言，如果局面得不到控制，蒙古今年出现负增长也并非不可能。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">被“第三邻国”发展战略误导</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一个“经济奇?！焙我栽谌绱硕淌奔淠诒涑伞安菰糜啊?？</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">蒙古国内最初的主导意见是觉得他们“上届政府不行”：2012年，蒙古民主党在蒙古大呼拉尔（国家议会）选举中获胜，成为蒙古执政党，而蒙古经济正是从这一年开始盛极而衰的。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">另一派意见则认为是由于蒙古国过于依赖矿业。近年来煤、铜等蒙古出口大宗产品国际市场需求量、价格双双低迷，这种局面非蒙古一国所能负责，也不是任何一个蒙古政党所能力挽狂澜的。这些意见固然都有各自道理，但问题的关键却并不在此。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">正如一些分析家所指出的，蒙古国经济衰退固然主要受国际市场影响，但弄到如今这种“断崖暴跌”的局面，关键在于外资的退缩：2011年，蒙古全年外资流入达46.2亿美元，而2016年1-6月仅有区区0.35亿美元——这不仅仅因为资源需求萎缩，事实上即便价格跌得更惨的原油产业，那些产油国也不至于门可罗雀至此，外资远离蒙古的最大原因，是蒙古国政府自己“赶走”了他们。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">由于押宝矿石出口一夜暴富，蒙古国朝野在2011年前后陷入一种奇怪的躁动中，原本只是个原则性口号的“第三邻国”发展战略（蒙古只有中国、俄罗斯两个邻国，“第三邻国”意即打破对这两个邻国的贸易依赖），此时此刻却有了一些“实质性内容”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一些蒙古智库，如著名的蒙古独立金属采矿研究部，也在不断抱怨，他们认为与俄罗斯的合作，就因后者的“官僚主义与旧思维”而屡屡被“扼杀”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">为限制外资丧失契约精神</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在这种思路引导下，2012年蒙古政府通过了新版色彩强烈的《海外投资法》，这一打着“便利外国对蒙古投资”、“?；ずＭ馔蹲收呃妗钡男路ò福翟蚨院Ｍ馔蹲拭晒抛试蠢嗖?，提出了种种苛刻的限制。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">出于“第三邻国”思路的考量，蒙古国最大执政党民主党推动通过了“关于矿山治理事项的规定”，对外企在蒙古矿业开发中的控股权施加种种限制条款。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">例如，蒙古国在号称世界储量最大焦煤田之一的塔万陶勒盖煤矿开发招标中，不仅从一开始就制订了特别限制条款——发标前就将煤矿分为两块，一半由蒙古自己的“塔万陶勒盖能源公司”经营开发，一半交给外资开发，并且要求中标的外国财团负责修建从煤矿通往赛音商德市的铁路专用线，以及专门的电厂和公路；而且当包括中国神华集团在内的3家外企组成财团中标后，蒙古国家安全委员会竟宣布“投标不算”，要求重新组织谈判、招标，以便让日韩企业也加入进来，并借此提高“要价”。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">最初似乎一切顺利：美日韩欧政商人士纷至沓来，商讨从经济开发区到战略伙伴合作框架、各层面的合作事宜。被蒙古国寄予最大期望值的塔万陶勒盖煤矿和奥尤陶勒盖铜金矿，虽然没能如愿吸引到日、韩飞来的“凤凰”，却一度“钓”来世界三大矿业巨头之一的力拓，这让蒙古朝野一度非常激动。直至2014年1月，有媒体还以“矿产品不愁卖”和“第三邻国战略有利于获得更高收益”为由，预测2014年度蒙古将获得15%以上的超高经济增速。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">然而，由于过度沉湎于“好酒不怕巷子深”的待价而沽心理，蒙古国自2012年起对外国投资者难免予取予求、朝令夕改，不断提高要价，契约的效力和约束力被弃之如敝屣。这种做法不仅令“两大邻国”望而生畏，其他“第三邻国”的投资者们也被吓得纷纷离场观望，原本兴冲冲赶来的力拓也变得意兴阑珊。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">蒙古国深陷诚信?；?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">问题是时过境迁，市场的不景气、需求的下降，加上两个邻国和“第三邻国”对蒙古方既往诚信问题越来越深的疑虑和保留，让许多外资宁可选择“不在该国经济中发挥任何作用”——很显然，在这种情况下，蒙古国引为可居奇货的“财富”，也就只能无可奈何地变为“财负”。万不得已，蒙古政府试图通过上调利率和扩张性财政手段稳定汇率，并扭转外资下滑的局面。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">然而不难看出，前述导致外资“被吓跑”、“被赶走”的因素不解决，仅仅通过利率杠杆非但对留住外资无济于事，反倒可能影响企业融资和成本，从而进一步打压本已低迷的经济增速。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在可预见的一段时间里，经济结构严重畸形、政策误区又难以很快走出的蒙古国，恐怕难以摆脱这场突如其来的经济和金融危机。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">□陶短房（学者）</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘文俊 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：蒙古国金融?；?/p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" 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