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class="fr"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="jiathis_style_24x24"> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_renren"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code_mini/jia.js?uid=1399539302485450" charset="utf-8"></script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">中央城市工作会议指出,要尊重城市发展的规律。当前有关特大城市的人口规模如何决定和调控,有各种观点和主张,相关讨论中存在很多理论和思想中的模糊地带,笔者认为非常有必要做一些梳理。笔者认为,市场价格机制应该在调控城市规模的进程中起决定性作用,政府的作用应该是在没有价格机制的时候去建立价格机制,而在无法运用价格机制的领域,再用行政手段来弥补市场的缺陷。在政策上,应该防止政府忽视市场机制建设,而用行政力量取代市场功能。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">一、价格机制应该起调控城市规模的决定性作用</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">城市规模本质上是个企业和居民的选址问题,是经济主体权衡利弊的结果,因此,城市规模由一个可以用“DCPSP”来概括的城市发展规律来决定,这个规律由五个构件共同组成:</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">1、需求(Demand):企业选址追求的是利润最大化,个人选址反映的是对美好生活的向往,人口向更高的收入、更好的就业和综合生活质量迁移。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">2、约束(Constraint):企业和个人的决策面临资源与环境容量约束。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">3、价格(Price):通过市场价格调节,城市规模必然小于容量约束,而不会突破约束。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">4、供给(Supply):虽然在短期内资源环境的总量是给定的,但是在长期,资源和环境的总量可以通过经济增长、以及技术和管理手段来增加?；痪浠八?城市的承载力不是一个常数,而是可以在动态过程中逐步增加的。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">5、政策(Policy):价格机制并不是万能的,当市场出现无法通过价格机制来解决的外部性问题时,政府职能是减少负外部性,增加正外部性。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在上述城市发展规律中,体现了市场经济作为配置资源的决定性力量,而政府更好地发挥作用。政府发挥的作用体现在两个方面:第一,通过政府掌握的技术和管理手段来增加供给,比如说,上海市建设青草沙水库来增加生活用水供给能力,同时,通过西电东输和西气东输来增加能源供给;第二,政府可以在出现环境污染和交通拥堵的负外部性问题时,通过政策来减少负外部性,比如征收排污费和车牌税,同时,在存在知识外溢这样的正外部性的领域,通过政策来增加正外部性,比如举办公益性的文化活动。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在政府发挥作用的时候,也需要借助价格机制最大化资源配置效率和人民福利。例如,在通过公共投资来增加资源总量时,应对资源使用者征收与投资相适应的费用,比如说,将建水库和输电的成本体现在水价和电价上,这时,才可以让使用者更有效地利用资源。当然,如果政府想在效率基础上增加平等的目标,那么,可以对低收入者进行补贴,比如说实施阶梯型的水价和电价。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">此外,在出现外部性问题时,需要将市场价格机制与行政手段进行最佳的配合。比如说,在群租现象的管理中,不同环节的治理机制各有不同。有些是有外部性但可以运用价格机制来治理的,比如对于环境卫生问题可以运用罚款机制;有些是有外部性但缺乏价格机制的,比如公共安全,这时,对于在群租房内实施违法活动的,可以通过法律途径来治理;而有些是没有外部性的,则应该交给市场去调节,比如说,人均居住面积的大小并不影响其他人,其成本-收益都是由承租人来承担的,这应让市场根据供求决定,而不应是行政干预的目标。而有时,价格机制的确失效,需要政府干预。比如说,一个城市的公园到底有多大价值是很难有市场评价的。再比如说,在涉及到跨代的长远目标时,对于未来的需求,当代的政府很难准确估计。在这些情况下,行政手段仍然是价格机制的补充。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">二、用行政手段控制城市规模弊大于利</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">根据以上规律和原则,在城市规模的决定这一问题上,有两个思维误区长期影响着政策制定:</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第一,人为地设定城市的“承载力”缺乏理论基础。事实上,这个“承载力”如果是指环境资源总量,那么,在长期,它是动态可变的,而在短期,如果存在市场的价格机制,承载力是不可能被突破的。因此,在理论上,不存在以“承载力”为由的控制城市规模政策,在国际上也没有人为设定城市承载力的先例。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第二,在市场和政府之间是可以有明确的理论来划分边界的。在市场能够发挥其配置资源的决定性力量的时候,政府不应用行政力量取代市场。因此,在国际上没有直接运用行政手段来管制国内跨地区人口流动的先例,也没有人为规定人均居住面积的先例。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">如果不充分认识到城市发展的客观规律,不重视价格机制的基础作用,那就会给政府工作带来巨大的困惑,甚至出现事与愿违、事倍功半的结果。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">在规划城市未来人口和空间的时候,如果住房、基础设施和公共服务的增长跟不上人口的实际增长,那么,市场经济将出现价格调节供求的结果。在住房市场上,如果住房供应不足,房价上行压力将始终存在。而在基础设施和公共服务方面,由于缺乏价格机制的调节作用,那么,在出现短缺的时候,就可能不得不用行政手段来强制平衡,引发群众不满。因此,特大城市必须要科学地预测人口增长趋势,避免在未来出现更严重的城市病,以及基础设施和公共服务的短缺。事实上,在过去的历史上,曾反复出现政府规划的城市规模被突破。更重要的是,当政府对基础设施和公共服务按规划人口来投资建设的时候,事后的城市病在本质上是供给不足的问题,而不是需求过多的问题。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">如果对城市人口规模采取行政性的管制政策,必然出现对常住人口出现差别化的对待,尤其是在公共服务方面,而这又与公共服务覆盖常住人口的改革趋势相违背。公共服务的作用原本是要缩小人们由收入差距带来的福利差距,但如果将公共服务与户籍挂钩,而户籍门槛又与技能挂钩,那么,公共服务的覆盖对象并不是城市中最低收入群体,其作用反而是在扩大常住人口的实际福利差距。同时,对于低技能者设定更高的落户门槛,必然导致这部分劳动力的供给不足,结果导致其短缺或劳动成本上升。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">三、实施市场主导的城市规模管理政策</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">根据以上分析,如果要让城市实现发展、绿色、共享等几个目标,在经济增长、环境宜居和社会和谐之间寻求共赢,那么,建议相应采取以下几个方面的政策组合:</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第一,进一步引入价格机制来实现基础设施与公共服务的供求平衡。对于基础设施和公共服务的投资成本,应该用价格机制让享用者付费,这样,价格本身就会反映在城市居住的成本,从而影响一个人是否进入特大城市的决策。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第二,对于城市发展中的外部性问题,应运用价格机制来应对。针对生产和生活中存在的正、负两方面的外部性,合理设计价格机制,可以将社会的环境、拥堵等成本分摊给造成这些问题的个体,同样,也可以让产生社会正效应的个体得到更高的收入。这些价格机制也可以影响不同类型的行为的发生,进而影响个人或企业的选址决策。政策上如果不能用价格机制来让实施外部性行为的主体承担成本,那么,在本质上,这就形成了相关行为人的特权,与市场经济的公平原则是不符的。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第三,在价格机制发挥决定性作用的同时,对于城市规划中涉及到难以有价格机制的环节,比如绿地的面积和布局,又比如建筑物的容积率,应多方引入科学研究和专家意见,同时,借鉴国际经验,提高规划的科学性和先进性。城市规划应综合考虑经济、社会、环境等多方面因素,让规划跟上经济社会发展的实际需要。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第四,基于分享理念,实施对于合法就业的常住人口公共服务均等化。一个人能够在一个城市就业,本身就是各种生产要素市场综合作用的结果,反映了城市产业发展所产生的就业需求。国际上的普遍做法是,合法就业人口是城市的贡献者,因此需要对等地享受公共服务。即使对于外国人,只要能够拿到工作许可,也同样享受基本的公共服务。从长期来看,所有常住人口(特别是其中事实上长期居住的人口)是城市发展的人力资源,应得到平等的公共服务,并成为提升城市人力资源战略的实施对象。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; 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title="郭松海" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1072.jpg" class="img" /><ins>郭松海</ins></a> <a title="李兰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1051.jpg" class="img" /><ins>李兰</ins></a> <a title="房兴耀" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1041.jpg" class="img" /><ins>房兴耀</ins></a> <a title="池慧" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1033.jpg" class="img" /><ins>池慧</ins></a> <a title="柳斌杰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/13/635.jpg" class="img" /><ins>柳斌杰</ins></a> <a title="曹义孙" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/175.jpg" class="img" /><ins>曹义孙</ins></a> <a title="毛新宇" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/66.jpg" class="img" /><ins>毛新宇</ins></a> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="sliderbox" style="opacity:0; z-index:0;"> <a title="詹国枢" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/172.jpg" class="img" /><ins>詹国枢</ins></a> <a href="ti" title="朱永新" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/69.jpg" class="img" /><ins>朱永新</ins></a> <a title="张晓梅" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/171.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张晓梅</ins></a> <a title="焦加良" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/169.jpg" class="img" /><ins>焦加良</ins></a> <a title="张连起" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/167.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张连起</ins></a> <a title="龙墨" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/129.jpg" class="img" /><ins>龙墨</ins></a> <a title="王名" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/88.jpg" class="img" /><ins>王名</ins></a> <a title="何水法" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/168.jpg" class="img" /><ins>何水法</ins></a> <a title="李延生" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/166.jpg" class="img" /><ins>李延生</ins></a> </div> <div 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