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class="jiathis_style_24x24"> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_renren"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code_mini/jia.js?uid=1399539302485450" charset="utf-8"></script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: inherit; line-height: 1.6;">有观点认为，由于中国非金融企业部门债务率超出国际一般水平，经济增速下行和产业结构调整势必带来更大范围企业违约，系统性风险不可避免。我们认为，这种观点有失偏颇。中国宏观经济杠杆问题并不十分严重，非金融企业总体债务风险可控。由于经济总体运行将处在平稳区间，短期内不会爆发债务危机，更不会成为全球金融?；牟咴吹?。</span></p><div style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">就目前市场十分关注的信用债风险而言，也应前瞻性、技术性观察。2016年以来，虽然信用债市场主体评级下调数量呈逐月升高态势，且国有企业及央企越来越多地出现在级别下调的名单上，煤炭、钢铁、有色等产能过剩行业较为突出，但另一方面，今年上半年上调发行人信用级别的次数也达150家，主要集中在政府融资平台?？梢钥闯?，债券市场信用发行主体的风险并没有表现为系统性特征，而是出现了结构分化局面，投资者对城投债的偏好不降反增。随着经济改革和债券市场调整的深入，预计未来仍将存在一些违约个案的发生，但违约总体风险相对可控，不会出现大面积的债市违约潮，出现系统性债务偿还?；母怕屎苄　５比?，对产能过剩行业的个别企业的经营情况和信用状况，还是要高度关注。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">事实上，目前我国非金融企业部门债务水平高与中国经济结构、历史因素、居民风险偏好等密切相关。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第一，非金融企业债务占比高是中国经济结构的特点，体现了企业在债务融资和投资领域的主导性，且社会总体债务水平并不高。根据《中国国家资产负债表（2015）》的数据，虽然中国非金融企业债务占GDP比重达123.1%，但政府债务占比、居民债务占比仅分别为57.8%、36.4%，显著低于多数主要经济体。总体债务水平为217%，位于中等偏低水平，远低于日本（400%）、西班牙（313%），亦低于法国（281%）、意大利（259%）、英国（252%）、美国（233%）、韩国（231%）、加拿大（221%）等世界主要经济体。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第二，中国金融市场欠发达，债务融资占比高而直接融资占比低是历史形成的，多层次、多元化金融市场建设需要一个过程，现阶段仍然体现为企业负债水平高。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">第三，中国企业高负债结构与居民风险偏好程度低相适应。长期以来，中国居民资产配置风险偏好较低，2015年末总储蓄率仍然高达47.6%，而商业银行具备较强的吸储能力，有利于迅速将储蓄转化为投资，这是企业债务规?？焖倮┐蟮闹匾蛑弧?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">企业的违约概率与GDP增速的变化有较高的相关性。我们观察到，国际金融?；岳矗夜鶪DP增速从2010年的10.5%，逐步降到2015年的6.9%，企业债务违约风险确实在逐步攀升；但2015年下半年以来中国经济总体运行已趋于平稳，经济增速稳定在6.5%至7.0%区间，企业违约概率从2015年四季度也开始逐步企稳，至2016年6月底，违约率较年初出现小幅回落。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">观察企业债务风险变化，应着重关注违约概率，而影响违约概率的主要因子是偿债能力与偿债意愿，而不是债务占GDP的比重。决定企业偿债能力与偿债意愿的主要因子是企业的资产负债情况。从数据上看，近年来中国工业主要行业的资产负债率非但没有恶化，大部分行业的负债率还呈好转趋势。</p></div><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：薛晓钰 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：债市 ?；?#32;非金融企业</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> <li><a 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