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<a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_renren"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code_mini/jia.js?uid=1399539302485450" charset="utf-8"></script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-align:center"><a href="/upload/resources/image/2016/04/04/228787.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/upload/resources/image/2016/04/04/228787_500x500.jpg" title="6762C3944C2F0B6B812D6B1FCCFBF8F0" alt="6762C3944C2F0B6B812D6B1FCCFBF8F0" suffix="jpg"/></a></p><p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em;">　同济大学，游客正在拍摄进入盛花期的?；?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">上海气象部门4月1号推出第四份花期预报，“?；ㄈ轮邢卵?、“牡丹三月底至四月初”这些关于时间的表述，被市民吐槽“太粗线条了”，而专家表示精确预报目前还很难做到。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">所谓上海花期预报，是今年3月11号气象部门首次推出的，当时并没有用花期预报的政策生涯，这叫做“赏花说明书第一站”，而现在已经是到第四站了。这个赏花说明书还附有一张赏花地图，标明了当期的赏花地点，内容还包括赏花集市，介绍赏花的科普知识和注意事项。当时报道说，未来生成主要的春季花卉都会有一个适合的纪念模型。研究人员将不断对花期预测进行修正，希望达到三天的精确度。很显然这样的精确度并没有一个到达的那个精确的时间节点。最新的这一时段标题是“牡丹正当时”，于是牡丹和清明前后出花期，4月下旬为出花期。而预计此前是4月中下旬进入出花期，当中依然用的是这样的“粗线条”的图片，难怪要被市民吐槽。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">提到花期预报，网友、市民总是要把它从日本精确到天的那个?；ㄔげ饨斜冉?。据了解，?；ㄔけㄖ哉饷醋既罚怯捎谌毡径杂；ń魃鞯某て诜致浒盐?，与长期的物候研究是分不开的。而且它们也是集中在?；ㄕ庋ヒ坏钠分稚?，我国的花期预报是在气象预报基础上拓展开来的。目前还是处于起步阶段，要达到那样的精准度还是相当难的。上海植物园高级工程师王玉勤多年进行物候观察，他认为这份花期预报也顶多是一个大概预测，花期预报要积累庞大的物候观察、气象方面的基础数据、资料、建立模型结合经验做出预报。我们现在这方面基础数据太少了，更关键是现在是天气变化无常，为精确预报也是带来很大的困难。近年来，上海市公园引进的花卉品种也是不断的增加，光是郁金香就有好多品种，开花也前后不一，这也增加了花期预报的难度。</p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：巩盼东 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：上?；ㄆ谠け?/p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img 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