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target="_blank"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code_mini/jia.js?uid=1399539302485450" charset="utf-8"></script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">共和党内整个精英阶层和权势集团的萎靡，源于过去20年间本党低下的政治绩效。不管是小布什当政白宫，还是共和党掌控两院，都没给本党的草根选民带来实实在在的好处。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">20日，因在党内初选中表现不佳，杰布·布什黯然宣布退出竞选。此前，这位政治新星曾一度被党内精英阶层看好，并有望续写布什家族的政治新传奇。在刚刚结束的南卡罗来纳州共和党第三场初选中，布什延续颓势只位列第四，翻身梦碎，出线无望。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">表面上看，杰布温文尔雅，颇有翩翩君子之风，说话不紧不慢，娓娓道来，表达不温不火，头头是道。同时，杰布还有其他候选人所不具备的血统和经验优势：政治基因不是靠夸口得来的，父亲和哥哥都是总统，都有超群的智慧和能力，杰布颇有乃父乃兄之风，在大州州长的位子上历练数年，某些方面甚至比哥哥做的还出色?；褂?，两位布什前总统留下的组织和人脉基础，足够杰布挥霍，刚刚宣布参选，大笔的政治捐助便源源不断而来。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">但在此次初选中，这两点都没被转化为杰布的优势。曾鼎力支持小布什的保守派认为，杰布的政治立场过于温和，棱角不分明，结不下死党，强硬保守派的选票都流向了克鲁兹。曾很信任小布什的右翼民粹派则认为，杰布身上的“贵族气”太浓，走不到田间，接不到地气，缺乏新鲜感，不少民粹派的选票都投给了特朗普。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">特别是右翼民粹情绪的高涨，让竞选中的口吐狂言成为不畏权贵的表征、漫天诳语成为有梦想有抱负的代言，经验不再重要，血统化为原罪，谦恭变成迂腐，宽容成了软弱。杰布，成了党内民粹派与保守派争夺话语权的牺牲品。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">放眼整个共和党，在奥巴马自由派政策和党内民粹派情绪的前后夹击之下，党内当权大佬们的日子也多像杰布一样，不好过。据最新民调，公众对共和党的满意度只有33%，不满意度达53%；对共和党掌控的国会，满意度降至12%，不满意度则上升为70%。共和党内整个精英阶层和权势集团的萎靡，源于过去20年间本党低下的政治绩效。不管是小布什当政白宫，还是共和党掌控两院，都没给本党的草根选民带来实实在在的好处。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">从南卡投票结果看，杰布在反恐问题上的立场最受支持者欢迎，但在全国范围看，反恐已难称最重要议题。相信他在经济问题上会有作为的，只占25%。过去十几年以来，作为共和党主要票仓的白人蓝领基督徒，无论从物质上还是精神上都牢骚满腹，他们不满奥巴马政府的经济和社会政策，但也憎恨党内的当权派们，恨他们尸位素餐、不思进取，白白浪费了手中的那些权力。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">初选中，共和党大佬们也都知道，保杰布就是在保自己，不能任由民粹主义的大火蔓延。因此，不少亲近当权派的组织和团体也都在为杰布和卢比奥等“贵族”参选人助选，不让特朗普和克鲁兹等“草根”参选人上位。但很明显，诸多努力都成徒劳，比杰布稍强一点的卢比奥，得票也只排到了第三。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">杰布退选，已经让共和党走到了十字路口，就目前形势看，卢比奥能不能担负起重组当年布什主义联盟的重任，还是个未知数，特朗普和克鲁兹就像横亘在前的两座大山，很难清走。也许到最后，妥协才是唯一出路。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">□史泽华（北京外国语大学国际关系学院副教授）</p><p><br style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;"/></p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：刘文俊 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：美国党内初选杰布·布什退选</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2016-02-22/705254.shtml">“父替子应聘”是一种任性包办</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2016-02-22/705248.shtml">一条小鱼何以搅动整个舆论??？</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2016-02-22/705246.shtml">财政补贴要力避“数羊游戏”</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" href="/c/2016-02-22/705239.shtml">“多?；苯獠豢裥Ｈ鹊乃澜?/a></li> <li><a target="_blank" 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