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class="i2i2jyu4k" id="content"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pv_box m_p ov_hi"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bw_750 fl"> <h1 class="pv_title_2"> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="site fr"><a href='/'>首页</a>><a href='/yl/'>要论</a>><a href='/yl/zm/'>争鸣</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/yl/zm/">争鸣</a></span> </h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">“生产过剩”其实只是“生产错误”</span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2015年11月16日 15:04 | 作者:刘文俊 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新京报</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="jiathis_style_24x24"> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_renren"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code_mini/jia.js?uid=1399539302485450" charset="utf-8"></script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">面对“生产过?！?，加大投资，通常效率低下，并且以通胀和物价上涨为代价。合理的做法，是收紧货币口子，给企业减税减压，放松管制，让市场自行修复。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">近日，有著名经济学家在深圳发表演讲，称中国经济产能过剩，通货紧缩严重。从市面看确实如此，煤炭价格一跌再跌，库存依然许多；钢铁跌成白菜价，需求依然有限。中国消耗了世界上最多的铜，这几年却需求大减，导致国际铜价大跌，产铜国也变得产量过剩?？雌鹄?，生产过剩在到处蔓延。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">其实，生产过剩这词具有很大误导性，它仅仅指商品卖不出去。原因也简单：生产者对市场预判错误，导致生产出来的东西不符合市场需求。世界上没有过剩的产品，只要肯降价甚至是白送，只不过收益不抵成本，企业会亏损，甚至被彻底清出市场。所以他们一面降价，一面苦苦难持。在市场经济中，这种生产错误是常见的事情，如果持续性生产错误，企业就会被清出。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">传统经济学在这里就陷入了解释谬误。他们说是“需求不足”，人们不愿花钱。专业话语说是流动性紧缺，通货紧缩。凯恩斯主义者提议这时候政府出台刺激政策。故而该经济学家说，“紧急情况下，动用一些行政手段也是必要的。经济过冷，政府该做的事情也要理直气壮去做?！?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">经济?；某梢?，值得听取的是奥地利经济学派的意见。奥地利学派说，让企业家陷入普遍生产错误的东西，只有货币。政府垄断货币，并且倾向于扩张货币规模。尤其特殊时期（例如2008年金融?；?，开闸放水很常见。新增货币不是均匀流入市场，而是通过政府项目和银行信贷，缓缓流入市场。通胀初期，经济一派热火朝天，各行业发现贷款利息很低，赚钱非常容易，于是各种工程项目上马，基础建设的材料需求很大。这就刺激了上游产业，它们扩张产能，大量生产。价格不断上涨，订单还是不断飘来，老板赚到大钱，员工收入也不断上涨。通胀初期，上游产品价格节节上涨，生意火爆。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">通胀不是没有代价。新增货币在市场流通，伴随着物价涟漪般的上涨。底层民众和工薪阶层最为不利，物价上涨通常赶在收入增加之前。政府不会放任物价持续上涨，通胀总有结束之时。一旦信贷收紧，贷款不再轻易得到，民众饱受物价上涨之苦，消费力没有提升，大量错误投资就暴露了出来。很多企业家原来以为能赚到钱的生意，举步维艰。于是，他们开始经历艰难的调整。最首要的做法，就是停止投资，不放任错误扩大。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">比起下游万千产业，上游行业通常狭窄，无非几个资源性和能源性产业。下游需求普遍减少，上游自然变得“过?！?。几年前招的员工大量裁掉，上涨的工资压缩，很多矿井歇工，生产线停止，呈现在市面的是卖不掉的产品——也就是所谓的“生产过?！薄?/p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">请注意，经济周期后半段的萧条局面是市场自我的修复过程。到处是裁撤，减薪，压缩成本，这是企业家在止损，同时将节省出来的资源，投向正确的投资渠道。这个过程是痛苦并且必要的。像有的经济学家建议的那样加大投资，通常效率低下，并且以通胀和物价上涨为代价，短期起色只不过让?；笱印：侠淼淖龇ǎ鞘战艋醣铱谧?，给企业减税减压，放松管制，让市场自行修复。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; text-align: left;">□箐城子（《罗辑思维》主编）</p><p><br 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title="张自立" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1074.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张自立</ins></a> <a title="郭松海" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1072.jpg" class="img" /><ins>郭松海</ins></a> <a title="李兰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1051.jpg" class="img" /><ins>李兰</ins></a> <a title="房兴耀" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1041.jpg" class="img" /><ins>房兴耀</ins></a> <a title="池慧" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1033.jpg" class="img" /><ins>池慧</ins></a> <a title="柳斌杰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/13/635.jpg" class="img" /><ins>柳斌杰</ins></a> <a title="曹义孙" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/175.jpg" class="img" /><ins>曹义孙</ins></a> <a title="毛新宇" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/66.jpg" class="img" /><ins>毛新宇</ins></a> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="sliderbox" style="opacity:0; z-index:0;"> <a title="詹国枢" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/172.jpg" class="img" /><ins>詹国枢</ins></a> <a href="ti" title="朱永新" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/69.jpg" class="img" /><ins>朱永新</ins></a> <a title="张晓梅" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/171.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张晓梅</ins></a> <a title="焦加良" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/169.jpg" class="img" /><ins>焦加良</ins></a> <a title="张连起" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/167.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张连起</ins></a> <a title="龙墨" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/129.jpg" class="img" /><ins>龙墨</ins></a> <a title="王名" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/88.jpg" class="img" /><ins>王名</ins></a> <a title="何水法" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/168.jpg" class="img" /><ins>何水法</ins></a> <a title="李延生" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/166.jpg" class="img" /><ins>李延生</ins></a> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="sliderbox" style="opacity:0; z-index:0;"> <a title="巩汉林" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/70.jpg" class="img" /><ins>巩汉林</ins></a> <a title="李胜素" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/173.jpg" class="img" /><ins>李胜素</ins></a> <a title="施杰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/124.jpg" class="img" /><ins>施杰</ins></a> <a title="王亚非" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/120.jpg" class="img" /><ins>王亚非</ins></a> <a title="艾克拜尔·米吉提" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/128.jpg" class="img" /><ins>艾克拜尔·米吉提</ins></a> <a title="姚爱兴" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/137.jpg" class="img" /><ins>姚爱兴</ins></a> <a title="贾宝兰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/174.jpg" class="img" /><ins>贾宝兰</ins></a> <a title="谢卫" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/170.jpg" class="img" /><ins>谢卫</ins></a> <a title="汤素兰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/10/176.jpg" class="img" /><ins>汤素兰</ins></a> </div> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display:none"> <li> <div class="i2i2jyu4k" id="sliderbox4" class="sliderbox_box"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="sliderbox" style="opacity:0; z-index:0;"> <a title="黄信阳" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1079.jpg" class="img" /><ins>黄信阳</ins></a> <a title="张其成" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/1003.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张其成</ins></a> <a title="潘鲁生" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/912.jpg" class="img" /><ins>潘鲁生</ins></a> <a title="冯丹藜" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/907.jpg" class="img" /><ins>冯丹藜</ins></a> <a title="艾克拜尔·米吉提" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/15/906.jpg" class="img" /><ins>艾克拜尔·米吉提</ins></a> <a title="袁熙坤" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/14/903.png" class="img" /><ins>袁熙坤</ins></a> <a title="毛新宇" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/14/896.jpg" class="img" /><ins>毛新宇</ins></a> <a title="学诚法师" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/14/850.png" class="img" /><ins>学诚法师</ins></a> <a title="宗立成" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/13/848.jpg" class="img" /><ins>宗立成</ins></a> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="sliderbox" > <a title="梁凤仪" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/13/845.jpg" class="img" /><ins>梁凤仪</ins></a> <a title="施杰" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/13/842.jpg" class="img" /><ins>施杰</ins></a> <a title="张晓梅" target="_blank"> <img src="/upload/resources/image/2014/02/13/840.jpg" class="img" /><ins>张晓梅</ins></a> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" 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