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id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/yw/tx/">天下</a></span> </h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">希腊债务?；某雎?/span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2015年07月24日 11:24 | 作者:陆忠伟 | 来源：<a target="_blank">人民政协网—人民政协报</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p> 　　希腊是欧洲文化、哲学的策源地，“言必称希腊”，代表有文化、有思想。当然，毛泽东主席在延安批评党八股时，是将这句话作为繁文缛节的靶子而加痛批的。近半年来，国际金融界聚焦希腊，则是因为希腊经济风雨飘摇、债台高筑，处于债务违约边缘，一旦出现流动性梗阻，或将成为欧元区经济崩盘“首虎”———无法偿债，并触发欧元区他国金融?；?，引起全球金融市场恐慌。</p> <p> 　　当下国际金融界的关注焦点是6月30日及7月5日两个重要节点。前者是希腊所欠国际货币基金组织一笔15亿欧元贷款的最后偿还期限。俗话说，借贷铁无情，认钱不认人。雅典囊中羞涩，急需借新偿旧挪着用，从欧洲央行、欧委会等“救助方”获得足够偿债的新贷款。但该国与债权方的谈判一波三折，从6月18日的卢森堡欧元区财长会议，到随后该国总理马不停蹄的告贷谈判，均无果而终。</p> <p> 　　后者则是希腊全民公投决定偿债方式及是否“退欧”的“命运之日”。抚今思昔，当年，希腊是“跑步”进入欧元区的第12个成员国，因其加入《马斯特里赫特条约》（简称“马约”）必须达标的物价稳定、汇率稳定、财政平衡等三项指标不是很过硬，后经“枪手”提分才勉强交上及格答卷。希腊加入欧元区伊始，通胀低徊、股市繁荣、经济增长，尝到甜头。而今，挟民意“退欧”，路途坎坷，荆棘丛生。</p> <p> 　　目前，危机已走到最后关头，希腊金融市场恐慌蔓延，银行挤兑欧元风潮四起，加速了资金外流，严重冲击经济，金融安全形势骤然紧张。针对希腊的经济现状与财政、货币政策，号称“三驾马车”的债权方遵循“务本节用财无极”的理财哲学，理所当然地开出了严苛的虎狼之药：财政紧缩、开源节流、加大税收、堵塞滴漏、打击欺诈。</p> <p> 　　正所谓“不革其旧，安能从新”。国际货币基金组织、欧洲央行、欧元区救助基金等“大医生”意图刮骨疗毒的疗法确难求全责备，但综合各种因素看，希腊经济之患，病来如山倒，病去如抽丝，指望一剂猛药而妙手回春，略嫌脱离实际。</p> <p> 　　可见，上述两个节点，既关乎希腊的今后发展与稳定，更关系欧元区的财政纪律及金融市场的健康。因此，希腊谈判团队与“布鲁塞尔小组”展开了艰难的周旋、折冲、还价，双方均显示出老道的拿捏诀窍及隐藏底线的智慧，但终因分歧太大而无法谈拢，以致希腊财长在近日的谈判中拂袖而去。双方主要分歧集中在如下几个方面：</p> <p> 　　首先是财政盈余的GDP占比，债权方强调至2015年至少应降至1%，希腊认为指标过高，应调低至0.6%；其次是养老金开支的GDP占比，债权方认为目前16.7%的比例过高，希腊认为5年内已进行大幅下调，全国2/3的退休者生活在贫困线以下，进一步紧缩将严重冲击这一弱势群体。再次，希腊经济的中长期发展所需资金庞大，希腊希望固本强基，夯实基础，升级产业贸易结构。债权方认为商情如火情，希腊公共债务总额的GDP占比高达179%，远高于“马约”规定的60%高压线，必须从今年起，在无法获得市场融资的前提下偿还200亿欧元。</p> <p> 　　不论谈判结果如何，出路无非如下几条布满荆棘的小道：一是谈判达成协议，希腊继续留在欧元区，满足“布鲁塞尔小组”的条件，服用“紧缩”猛药，对退休金制度加以结构性改革，改进征税方式。代价是社会不稳定加剧。二是多多少少由欧洲买单，再给“一年时间”，证明希腊“能行”。但从目前看，似无迹象显示债权方会灵活妥处。三是希腊难以满足债权方的苛刻条件，就“脱离欧元”举行全民公投，挟民意“脱欧”，自寻良策脱困。</p> <p> 　　“问国君之富，数地以对，山泽之所出；问大夫之富，曰有宰食力，祭器衣服不假。”这句哲言设问，什么是财富？致富之路何在，如何实现国富民强？司马迁《史记》中的《货殖列传》给出了答案，即重视包括商品和资本的“货”，以及资本生息、繁殖的“殖”。此论述确实在如何富贵惠民方面给人们留下思谋、阐发之空间。</p> <p> 　　一是当下国际金融界“言必称希腊”，讲的已非文化、哲学范畴问题，而是病入膏肓的经济，并将其提高到“希腊病”的高度。此病与“英国病”、“荷兰病”同病相怜，乃富贵病、“老年病”。实际上，该国早在2004年举办奥运会之后财政就出现了金玉其外、败絮其中的“金环蚀”现象——“花钱靠贷款，吃粮靠返销”。“借钱想到还钱时”的道理谁都懂，但该国传统“享乐文化”衍生的高福利、慢生活、超消费、好逃税的习惯，决定了生产率、竞争力、储蓄率低下。</p> <p> 　　二是欧元作为“人工孵化”的超主权货币，其诞生意义重大。2002年7月1日欧元正式流通约5个月后，亚洲的日本“人工繁殖”出新一代朱鹮，取名“优优”；“欧罗”与“优优”是人类之宝，但其共同命运是前世坎坷、今生多舛、远景难料。应该说，“欧元”是喜阳植物，需要人类给以更多阳光才能更加灿烂。鉴于欧元是中国持有的第二大储备资产，中欧关系更是关乎全球战略稳定，国际金融界应祈福欧元区稳定。</p> <p> 　　三是“惰而侈则贫，力而俭则富”。欧洲有一支与希腊文化不同的日耳曼———欧洲北方新教文化，它熏陶、养育出勤奋、苦干、严谨、务实精神，量入为出、殖产兴业、创新不止的德意志精神及“德国创造”。此等“货殖”之道值得借鉴，此乃国家致富必经之路，国家实力之源。</p> <p> 　?。ㄗ髡呦档谑⑹唤烊保?/p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：罗韦 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" 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