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<script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2015年06月13日 13:15 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新华社</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p> 　　新华社雅典６月１２日电财经观察：<strong>希腊的“危机边缘”政策能否奏效</strong></p> <p> 　　新华社记者陈占杰　刘咏秋</p> <p> 　　一方面是希腊的资金储备即将耗尽，另一方面是和债权人的谈判一波三折。随着６月３０日救助协议最后期限越来越近，希腊的“?；咴?rdquo;政策能否奏效，似乎充满变数。</p> <p> 　　今年２月，高举结束紧缩措施、终止救助协议大旗上台的希腊新政府与国际债权人达成协议，将原有救助协议延长４个月至今年６月底。在此期间，希腊应向债权人提交改革措施清单，该清单获得债权人同意后希腊就可获得剩余的７２亿欧元救助贷款。</p> <p> 　　过去几个月，双方未能就改革措施的内容达成协议，希腊政府的资金逐步耗尽，债务违约甚至退出欧元区的风险增加。希腊央行本月４日宣布，推迟偿还５日到期的国际货币基金组织（ＩＭＦ）３亿欧元贷款，将本月到期的４笔欠款合并至月底偿还。这使希腊成为继上世纪８０年代赞比亚之后，第一个提出这一要求的国家。</p> <p> 　　应该说，希腊政府推迟偿还贷款的举动，既是在资金即将用尽情况下的无奈之举，也是对债权人的一个警告：如果不在谈判桌上让步，希腊今后可能拒绝偿还所有贷款。简言之，希腊采取的是一种“?；咴?rdquo;政策。</p> <p> 　　希腊的“?；咴?rdquo;政策能否奏效，还有待观察。从过去几天的谈判情况来看，债权人的态度似乎趋于强硬。</p> <p> 　　欧盟委员会发言人斯基纳斯１０日表示，欧盟对希腊本月８日提交的改革计划不满意，认为计划内容与此前欧盟和希腊领导人协商内容不一致。</p> <p> 　　斯基纳斯说，希腊提交的改革计划希望该国２０１５年、２０１６年和２０１７年的基本财政盈余占国内生产总值的比重分别为０．７５％、１．７５％和２．５％，而欧盟委员会主席容克与希腊总理齐普拉斯本月３日协商的这一比重分别为１％、２％和３％。</p> <p> 　　在这种紧张气氛中，标准普尔公司１０日宣布下调希腊主权信用评级至ＣＣＣ，评级展望为负面。标普强调，若希腊政府与债权人未能达成协议，希腊很可能将在未来１２个月内债务违约。</p> <p> 　?。桑停菩挛欧⒀匀烁窭?middot;赖斯１１日表示，由于与希腊在关键领域的谈判分歧很大，目前ＩＭＦ已经暂停与希腊的救助谈判。</p> <p> 　　相对于债权人来说，希腊倒是对谈判前景表示乐观。齐普拉斯日前在会晤德国总理默克尔和法国总统奥朗德后向媒体表示，欧洲各国领导人认识到需要一个可行的解决方案，以便让希腊在保证社会和谐及债务可持续的情况下重拾经济增长。齐普拉斯称，各方将加紧努力，找到解决方案。</p> <p> 　　据悉，希腊的最新建议包括通过欧洲稳定机制（ＥＳＭ）和欧洲央行之间的债务置换获得若干资金，并在基本财政盈余目标方面作出让步。</p> <p> 　　希腊政府智库计划和经济研究所高级研究员亚尼斯·帕纳戈普洛斯认为，希腊从经济和文化上来说，都是欧洲和西方世界的一部分，与债权人达成协议是其唯一的选择。他认为，在必要时，希腊政府会选择让步。</p> <p> 　　关于另外一种可能出现的情况，即希腊在谈判破裂后退出欧元区，雅典工商会主席康斯坦丁诺斯·米哈洛斯警告说，和退出欧元区相比，过去６年来深受紧缩之苦的希腊人简直是生活在天堂里。他说：“如果说过去６年来希腊损失了２５％的国内生产总值的话，那么重回希腊原有货币德拉克马则会让我们在一天之内损失４０％的购买力，几周之内损失的购买力可能会达到６０％至７０％。”</p> <p> 　　世界银行行长金墉１０日称，市场不能低估希腊债务?；姆缦铡Ｋ粲跤泄馗鞣轿锍尚槎?，因为这样做对希腊、欧洲和世界经济都有好处。</p> <p> 　　最近的民意调查显示，８０％的希腊人希望留在欧元区，４７％的希腊人愿意为避免违约而达成可能是苛刻的协议，只有３５％的人表示不在乎退出欧元区。</p> <p> 　　消息人士１２日透露，希腊将派出由副总理德拉加萨基斯等人率领的谈判团队前往布鲁塞尔，解决与债权人之间的剩余分歧，落实齐普拉斯与德、法领导人最新一轮谈判的成果。希腊政府预测双方将在６月１８日之前达成协议，以便下一次的欧元集团会议能够批准向希腊发放剩余的救助贷款，避免国家陷于破产。</p> <p> 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