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class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p> <strong>　　原标题：奶源“相对过剩”亟待结构调整</strong></p> <p> 　　在2014年底以及2015年新年伊始，某些省份发生大规模的倒奶事件。</p> <p> 　　根据媒体的报道，作为我国西部重要乳品生产地区的青海，2014年12月在大通、湟中等奶牛养殖主产区，出现卖牛倒奶现象；2015年元旦刚过，山东潍坊爆出企业拒收鲜奶，导致奶农大面积杀牛和倒奶事件；广东省多地从1月1日起也已经纷纷出现奶农卖牛、倒奶的现象。相关数据显示，奶农每天倒奶超过20吨。</p> <p> 　　专家在接受中国经济时报记者采访时表示，“进口奶粉的冲击是导致国内倒奶事件的重要诱因之一，预计倒奶事件之后将会出现杀牛和国内奶源紧张等现象。</p> <p> <strong>　　倒奶事件频发</strong></p> <p> 　　“奶业行业所面临的严重压力需要我们的高度警觉，预计倒奶之后将是春节杀牛和最快2015年下半年或者2016年国内奶源紧张、进口奶支出大涨等现象的发生。”1月17日北京东方艾格农业公司乳业高级分析师马文峰告诉中国经济时报记者。</p> <p> 　　据悉，近期各地倒奶事件频发，从媒体跟踪情况来看，1个月前先是青海奶农倒奶、上周河北石家庄地区奶农倒奶，有的奶农没有发生倒奶事件，但是生产也相对紧张，产品面临较大的价格下跌和库存压力。</p> <p> 　　事件不仅没有得到有效控制，并有范围不断扩大，愈演愈烈的态势。</p> <p> 　　相关数据显示，从市场价格来看，2014年以来国内主产省的生鲜乳的价格持续下滑，根据农业部对主产省的周度监测记录，2014年2月国内主产省的生鲜乳的月度均价为4.26元／公斤，到2014年8月生鲜乳的均价跌破4元／公斤，12月更是跌至3.79元／公斤；同比下降7.90%，环比下降1.30%，3月—12月累计降价11.49%。</p> <p> 　　乳业资深专家陈渝告诉本报记者，“进口奶粉的冲击是导致国内倒奶事件的重要诱因之一，这警示我们一定要夯实奶行业的产业基础，加大相关政策的扶持力度，比如，大力推广"学生饮用奶计划"等措施是缓解当前严峻形势的最直接、最有效手段之一。”</p> <p> 　　针对卖奶难的情况，1月7日，农业部紧急下发通知，要求各级地方畜牧兽医部门迅速行动起来，采取有效措施，全力以赴协调处理“卖奶难”，确保奶农利益，稳定奶业生产。</p> <p> 　　马文峰则直言，“当下国内的产业结构到了不得不调整的时期，奶农倒奶不是简单的单一产品市场的不均衡问题，而是当前整体宏观经济和经济政策的不协调的具体体现，需要我国经济政策进行不同层面的调整。”</p> <p> <strong>　　“相对过剩”是暂时的</strong></p> <p> 　　“面对当前的形势，政府和企业需要作出正确的选择，要防范后期可能出现的更为严重的不协调。不仅要防范2015年下半年，最快可能在春节过后出现的奶源短缺，确保乳业产业的健康稳定发展，更重要的是要防范当前经济内外不均衡和国内经济不均衡对我国整体经济产生的更大不利冲击。”马文峰表示。</p> <p> 　　马文峰告诉记者，相关数据显示，来自国外的原料奶价格却大幅下降，这是国內牛奶“生产过剩”的重要诱因。</p> <p> 　　关于奶“相对过剩”现象产生的原因，马文峰认为，“从末端零售环节来看，今年国内物价增幅较低，许多产品的价格出现回落，尤其是市场化程度较高的各种肉类的价格出现回落，但是奶类市场的龙头企业存在一些市场的默契甚至市场的共谋，继续抬高产品价格以谋取更高的企业盈利水平。更多消费者放弃奶类的消费导致市场的萎缩，加剧了产品供应的过剩。”</p> <p> 　　从官方统计的全国奶牛存栏量来看：2010年共有1420万头，2011年1440万头，2012年1493万头，2013年1442万头，2014年难达1400万头。国内的原料供应基本稳定，在8200万吨—8660万吨之间，进口原料的数量对国内供求产生较为明显的影响。</p> <p> 　　“"杀牛、倒奶"只是一个表象，其深层原因在于原奶价格的下降不断压缩奶牛养殖的利润空间，部分规模养殖场已处于盈亏平衡点，个别地区对小规模养殖专业户和奶牛合作社的牛奶收购价格甚至不足2000元／吨，已远远低于奶牛养殖成本，严重挫伤了奶农养殖积极性。”陈渝分析。</p> <p> 　　据悉， 2014年以来，国内规模牧场生鲜牛奶的收购价格持续下跌，从年初的4510元／吨降至4340元／吨。</p> <p> 　　陈渝认为，“从美国等国家的经验看，"学生饮用奶计划"被纳入其国家社会发展计划的一个组成部分，拉动了上游养殖业发展，从而促进了整个奶产业链的健康成长，中国奶产业的发展可以借鉴此经验。”</p> <p> 　　“要加大对提高农村地区的社会保障的支出水平，为农产地区的土地流转、农业生产力水平的大幅提升、农村社会总需求的大幅提升提供基础，从根本上解决当前内需不足、生产相对过剩的问题。”马文峰建议。</p> <p> </p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：玄燕凤 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：奶源倒奶时间相对过剩</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> </ul> </div> <div style="height:40px"></div>  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div style="height:40px"></div><script charset="gbk" src="http://p.tanx.com/ex?i=mm_58500226_6900940_24396084"></script></div>  <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_55"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a4"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/sp_t2.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="ul2 bh_304"> <li><a href="/c/2019-02-27/2294152.shtml" 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