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<script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2014年12月19日 09:31 | 作者:吴黎华 | 来源：<a target="_blank">经济参考报</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p> 　　种种迹象显示，在中央经济工作会议之后，为了实现稳定经济增长和提高效率而进行的各项改革，特别是涉及直接融资市场的改革，正在全面加速推进。在业内人士看来，对于证券市场而言，中央经济工作会议有望显著降低市场风险溢价，其推进的各项改革也表明资本市场有望发挥更为重要的作用，这是构成A股市场“慢牛”的基础。</p> <p> <strong>　　改善　市场风险溢价将显著下降</strong></p> <p> 　　尽管本轮A股市场的强劲上涨主要源于资金推动以及杠杆工具的使用，但在机构看来，中央经济工作会议对于“新常态”的定调，以及在此背景下的宏观经济政策的调整，无疑降低了中国经济的总体风险和市场的风险溢价水平，为A股市场走出长期低迷提供了最终的基础。</p> <p> 　　中央经济工作会议指出，要努力保持经济稳定增长。关键是保持稳增长和调结构之间平衡，坚持宏观政策要稳、微观政策要活、社会政策要托底的总体思路，保持宏观政策连续性和稳定性，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。积极的财政政策要有力度，货币政策要更加注重松紧适度。要促进“三驾马车”更均衡地拉动增长。要切实把经济工作的着力点放到转方式调结构上来，推进新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展，逐步增强战略性新兴产业和服务业的支撑作用，着力推动传统产业向中高端迈进。</p> <p> 　　“中国经济的总体风险和市场的风险溢价显著下降。”中金公司表示，从会议的情况来看，明年宏观政策相对宽松的趋向已经明确，各项改革陆续定稿并开始实施，预计明年经济增长7.3%。中金公司认为，宏观经济政策的不确定性正在减弱，预计2015年宏观政策，尤其是货币政策、房地产政策将从此前的偏紧状态，逐步走向宽松和常态化，财政政策保持积极，赤字占GDP比例提高。</p> <p> 　　华泰证券表示，在货币政策方面，央行仍将主要通过公开市场操作中的一些新兴工具维持流动性处于合理区间，但在经济下行压力较大时降息降准等全面宽松政策将不会被雪藏。</p> <p> 　　在保持经济稳定增长的前提下，提高经济增长效率成为核心。方正证券表示，会议的精神表明，中央关于中国经济形势的判断和明年宏观调控的方式都出现了较大创新。这些创新包括：降低经济增长目标，更为深入、明确地论述“新常态”，明年的财政政策和货币政策将更为积极，以及对转方式、调结构的具体内容和重点的调整。这些创新的总目标是：适应“新常态”，调低增长速度，同时通过转方式、调结构来实现高质量的经济增长，也就是“调速不减势、量增质更优”。</p> <p> <strong>　　加速　直接融资市场改革全面推进</strong></p> <p> 　　中央经济工作会议明确，要加快行政审批、投资、价格、垄断行业、特许经营、政府购买服务、资本市场、民营银行准入、对外投资等领域改革，使改革举措有效转化成发展动力。在业内人士看来，中央经济工作会议对于“新常态”的定调，以及对于深化改革的坚定态度，意味着中国资本市场将有望在经济发展中担任更为重要的角色，其直接融资和配置资源的功能将有望更多地得到发挥。</p> <p> 　　中国证监会主席肖钢表示，经济发展进入新常态，将极大地改善资本市场发展的基础和环境，为资本市场发展提供难得的历史机遇。新常态下经济调速不减势，量增质更优，改革开放步伐不断加快，新战略新布局逐步实施，宏观调控方式和手段不断创新和完善，微观放活和宏观稳定相得益彰，这些都将激活直接融资，助推资本市场。</p> <p> 　　他强调，将促进股票市场平稳健康发展，积极推进股票发行注册制改革，在保持每月新股均衡发行、稳定市场预期的基础上，适时适度增加新股供给。同时将建立健全市场相关基础性制度安排，继续引导长期资金入市。进一步改革创业板市场，加快完善全国中小企业股份转让系统，规范发展服务小微企业的区域性股权市场，开展股权众筹融资试点等。</p> <p> 　　实际上，就在中央经济工作会议之后，涉及资本市场的各项改革正呈现出全面加速的迹象：12月18日晚间，中国证券业协会公布了《私募股权众筹融资管理办法（试行）》，对股权众筹融资的性质、投资者、融资者、投资者?；?、自律管理等内容进行了规定。12月15日，中国基金业协会发布《资产证券化业务基础资产负面清单指引（征求意见稿）》，以地方政府为直接或间接债务人的基础资产以及以地方融资平台为债务人的基础资产均被列入ABS负面清单。</p> <p> 　　武汉科技大学金融证券研究所所长董登新对《经济参考报》记者表示，中央经济工作会议提出的新部署将有利于形成资本市场更好的改革氛围，加速市场改革开放的推进，尤其在培育创新、创业企业，服务转型升级方面，资本市场将面临更大的发展空间。他认为，资本市场既是市场化融资的重要场所，也是资源配置的重要场所。过去我国新兴产业的发展更多依赖政府主导，受财税补贴等政府行为驱动，未来创新产业的培育将更多引向市场机制，通过市场化的渠道、市场化的投融资平台、市场化的定价，实现在要素配置过程中更多发挥市场的决定性作用。</p> <p> <strong>　　走强　A股市场人气急剧上升</strong></p> <p> 　　随着中央经济工作会议的召开，中国经济的种种不确定性正在减少，各项改革措施也不断深入，在此背景下，有“经济晴雨表”之称的股票市场，热度也不断增加。WIND统计数据显示，截至12月18日收盘，上证综指收报于3057.52点，今年以来累计上涨了44.50%；深证成指收报于10665.18点，今年以来累计上涨了31.32%。在包括美股三大股指、欧洲三大股指、日经225指数以及香港恒生指数等全球主要市场中，A股市场近5年来首度领涨全球。</p> <p> 　　中登公司最新数据显示，上周（12月8日至12日），两市新增股票账户89.22万户，创下2007年10月以来新高，显示越来越多的投资者正在涌入A股市场。投?；鹱钚率菹允荆现埽?2月8日至12日），证券市场交易结算资金银证转账增加额为5044亿元，减少额为4242亿元，证券市场保证金净流入802亿元，连续第六周净流入，显示投资者交投意愿仍然十分强烈。</p> <p> 　　在业内人士看来，股市对长期资金吸引力在增强，资本市场改革推进将主动引入更多长期资金?；Ω弁ㄆ舳蹩时臼谐《酝饪胖匾徊健Ｔ诓辉兜慕?，内地和香港基金互认、深港通、A股纳入MSCI指数等都将为A股市场引入巨量资金。股票期权、股指期权等产品推出将为这些长期资金提供更多投资工具。</p> <p> 　　对于此次A股的大幅上涨，中国政法大学资本研究中心主任刘纪鹏表示，股市改革和国家信心提振带来了红利，引散户资金注入。在金融杠杆与土地杠杆的扩张之下，中国房地产泡沫越积越高，买房稳赚不赔的神话已被打破，房地产和信托的部分资金开始撤出转向股市。同时，以募集基金为代表的机构投资者拉动了市场交易。不过，他强调，股市转牛固然是人心所向，但不能被短期的股市走强蒙住了双眼，看不到制度改革未到位的前提下，短期的利好带来的资金涌入仅仅是昙花一现的实质，疏忽对制度的进一步改革与完善。</p> <p> </p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：罗韦 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：市场改革政策资本市场股市</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> </ul> </div> <div style="height:40px"></div>  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div style="height:40px"></div><script charset="gbk" src="http://p.tanx.com/ex?i=mm_58500226_6900940_24396084"></script></div>  <h1 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