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class="i2i2jyu4k" id="content"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pv_box m_p ov_hi"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bw_750 fl"> <h1 class="pv_title_2"><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="site fr"><a >首页</a>><a href="/sy/jryl/">今日要论</a></span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/sy/jryl/">今日要论</a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <span id="a" style="">油价下跌，谁的危机？</span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2014年10月27日 09:34 | 作者:孙兴杰 | 来源：<a target="_blank">新京报</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">     <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p> 　　自6月以来,原油价格在4个月内跌了25%左右，且未来还处于跌势，油价暴跌可以说是这一轮大宗商品周期尾声。给很多国家带来不同的影响。</p> <p> 　　俄罗斯总统普京声称能够顶住油价下跌的压力；委内瑞拉一百多年来首次进口石油，同时中国向委内瑞拉提供的贷款或将被延期，油价暴跌对产油国的不良冲击已经显现。而沙特、科威特等海湾国家似乎比较淡定，沙特自认为可以忍受两年低油价，而科威特则说油价下跌的影响不大，但如果长期低油价就要调整经济发展战略。</p> <p> 　　油价暴跌对产油国的影响似乎冰火两重天。事实并非如此，多数产油国都被套上了石油的紧箍咒。这些国家的产业单一，但拥有丰富的油气资源，当国际能源价格暴涨的时候，这些国家就大获其利，成为国际经济舞台上的超级“大猩猩”。油价跌下去之后，这些国家就成了马戏团的“小猴子”。</p> <p> 　　对于能源的进口国来说，油价暴跌是个好事，相当于在石油消费领域减税25%，进一步淡化能源在经济发展中的影响。</p> <p> 　　世界经济的“能源密度”在下降，也就是说经济对能源的依赖度在下降。发达经济体中服务业占主导，人力资源、智能资源才是经济发展的关键要素。</p> <p> 　　这一轮油价下跌除了供需发展变化之外，比如北美页岩革命带来的额外能源，还有就是全球能源消费结构在变化。尤其是作为最大的能源消费增长国，中国经济在调整、降速。另外一个因素是美元在走强，国际能源价格还是以美元来计价的，油价就是石油与美元的比价，美元指数上升了，油价必然下跌。</p> <p> 　　油价具有了很强的金融属性，对于俄罗斯、委内瑞拉这些国家来说，油价下跌带来的是双重压力：油价下跌瓦解了既有的财政预算基础；美元指数上涨使这些国家的货币也在贬值，尤其是俄罗斯还经受着欧美严厉的金融制裁。</p> <p> 　　不错，俄罗斯有4500多亿美元的外汇储备，但是这些外汇既没有覆盖俄罗斯的外债，也不可能全部投入卢布的保卫战之中。普京的远见在于将石油出口换来的钱投入到联邦储备基金和国民福利基金中，以备不时之需。但长期来讲，无法应对石油收入减少和资本外流的双重挑战。</p> <p> 　　油价下跌对既有的石油生产模式和能源安全的概念也会有不小的影响。首先，高油价推动了石油替代产品的研发与生产，如果没有高油价以及“最后一桶油”的?；?，页岩革命也很难启动。普京所说的如果油价一直在低位，美国的能源生产会崩溃，也有些道理。</p> <p> 　　其次，油价下跌也促使我们思考，能源安全除了稳定的供应之外，还需要计较一下成本，不惜血本买油气田或者进行石油储备是否合理，需要检讨与反思。</p> <p> </p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：曾珂 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：油价下跌</p>    <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a href="/index.shtml" target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a 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