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<div class="i2i2jyu4k" id="header"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="layout pv_top"> <img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/logo.png" class="logo" /> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="layout pv_nav"><a >首页</a> <a href="/gqmq/jjd/" target="_blank">聚·焦点</a> <a href="/gqmq/czd/" target="_blank">财·知道</a> <a href="/gqmq/rpl/" target="_blank">锐·评论</a> <a href="/gqmq/hsj/" target="_blank">话·数据</a> <a href="/gqmq/sgc/" target="_blank">深·观察</a> <a href="/gqmq/dby/" target="_blank">读·榜样</a> </div> </div> <div class="i2i2jyu4k" id="content"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pv_box m_p ov_hi"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bw_750 fl"> <h1 class="pv_title_2"><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="site fr"><a href='/'>首页</a>><a href='/gqmq/'>国企·民企</a>><a href='/gqmq/sgc/'>深·观察</a></span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a1"><a href="/gqmq/sgc/">深·观察</a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <h1 class="Content_title" id="hh"> <p style="">一季度，我国外汇市场上外汇供大于求，而人民币汇率却有所走低</p> <span id="a" style="">汇率走势为何与供求相悖</span> </h1> <script>/*jQuery('#hh').width(jQuery('#a').width());*/</script> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Remark"> <span>2014年04月25日 09:36 | 作者:田俊荣 | 来源：<a target="_blank">人民日报</a></span> <span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr"> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空间"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到腾讯微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人网"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script> </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <p> 　<strong>　人民币汇率越来越受市场预期等非供求因素影响</strong></p> <p> 　　国家外汇管理局4月24日发布的数据显示，一季度我国跨境资金继续保持净流入态势，外汇市场上外汇供大于求的状况依然存在。从银行结售汇数据看，一季度，银行累计结汇（即银行从外汇所有者手中买入外汇）3.16万亿元，售汇（即银行向外汇使用者卖出外汇）2.19万亿元，结售汇顺差9737亿元。然而，人民币汇率却自2月中旬以来有所走低，一季度人民币兑美元汇率中间价累计回调1%左右。</p> <p> 　　人民币汇率是人民币与外汇的比价，市场上外汇多于人民币，人民币汇率本应节节上扬才是，为何出现反向波动？</p> <p> 　　外汇局国际收支司司长管涛解释说，当人民币汇率没有达到合理均衡水平时，受外汇供求关系影响往往较大，而目前人民币汇率已接近合理均衡水平，像成熟市场经济国家一样，供求因素只是影响汇率走势的重要因素而非唯一因素。事实上，去年我国跨境资金整体也偏流入，但市场上仍然出现过阶段性的人民币汇率双向波动。“现在的人民币汇率越来越像股票、债券等资产，市场预期、价值重估等非供求因素会对其走势产生较大影响。”</p> <p> 　　“今年以来，国内经济增长稳中略缓，外贸进出口增长较慢，还有一些信用违约事件开始暴露；国际上，美国量化宽松货币政策加速退出，这些都是分化汇率预期、推动资本流动的触发因素”，管涛说，“特别是当人民币汇率波动加大后，市场的适应和调整行为会进一步加剧汇率波动。”</p> <p> 　　原来，在过去人民币单边升值的局面下，不少投资者往往做多人民币、做空美元，也就是买入人民币、卖出美元。人民币汇率波动加大后，这种投机性做法的风险加大。于是，为了规避风险，这些投资者会进行反向平仓，卖出人民币、买入美元，短期内会给人民币汇率带来一定压力。</p> <p> 　<strong>　未来跨境资金流动和人民币汇率双向波动将成一种新常态</strong></p> <p> 　　“人民币汇率有涨有跌属于正常现象”，管涛说，无论采取什么样的汇率安排都没有只涨不跌的货币，尤其是汇率形成越市场化，汇率弹性就越大。从2005年汇改到2013年底，人民币兑美元汇率中间价累计升值36%，而时下人民币汇率仅回调了1%左右。“大家都知道股市的波动很正常，只有涨跌到一定幅度以后才能叫牛市或熊市，所以对人民币汇率的小幅调整不应过度解读。”</p> <p> 　　“如今人民币汇率双向波动已具备宏观和微观条件”，管涛表示，从宏观上看，自2010年起，我国经常项目顺差占国内生产总值比重已回落到国际认可的合理范围内，2013年这一比例为2%；从微观上看，资本流动对人民币汇率的影响越来越大。国际金融?；?，发达经济体纷纷出台量化宽松货币政策，造成全球低利率、宽流动性，使新兴经济体经常面临脱离本国基本面的资本流动冲击，中国也深受影响。</p> <p> 　　“预计未来跨境资金流动仍将保持双向振荡的格局”，管涛说，尽管现在人民币汇率出现波动，但影响跨境资金流动的基本面因素并没有发生根本改变。一季度中国经济仍运行在合理区间内，下一步我国政府将继续按照稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生的思路，着力增加有效供给，不断满足新增需求，注意防范和化解潜在风险，这将有利于中国经济保持平稳发展。另一方面也应看到，目前国内和国际上还有很多不确定、不稳定因素。“因此，在我国国际收支趋向均衡、人民币汇率接近合理均衡水平的背景下，未来跨境资金流动和人民币汇率双向波动将成为一种新常态。”</p> <p> 　　企业应树立正确的汇率风险意识，对汇率双向波动的风险都要管理</p> <p> 　　2005年汇改以来，越来越多的企业利用远期、外汇掉期、货币掉期、外汇期权等人民币外汇衍生产品来管理汇率风险。资料显示，去年银行对客户的各类人民币外汇衍生品交易量相当于2006年的17.4倍，占外汇市场成交量的比重从2006年的3%提高到去年的19%。</p> <p> 　　“通过这次汇率波动我们也注意到企业存在的一些问题”，管涛说，过去人民币汇率长期单边升值、波动较低时，企业主要是管理人民币升值风险，大量开展了远期结汇，而对于外币负债的敞口风险（指未加?；さ姆缦眨┟挥薪杏行У亩猿?。“此次汇率波动后，前期的一些国内外汇贷款和从海外借的外币负债，就会因为外币相对升值而承受一定的压力。”</p> <p> 　　管涛表示，下一步外汇管理部门将继续加强投资者教育，引导企业树立正确的汇率风险意识，对汇率双向波动的风险都要管理。</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：罗韦 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：汇率人民币外汇</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div 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