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title="W020130827333637541396" /></a></p> <p align="center"> <strong>全国政协常委林毅夫</strong></p> <p align="center"> </p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　曾几何时，在劳动密集型制造业的支撑下，中国把“世界工厂1.0”做到了极致。在当前劳动力成本、环境成本、能源瓶颈、技术水准、产能过剩等众多因素制约下，中国经济要实现持续较快发展，需要大力推动产业升级与结构转型。</span></span></span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　产业要升级到“微笑曲线”的两端，即附加值较高的销售和研发；产业要转型到附加值更高的资本和技术密集型制造业，传统的劳动密集型产业必须转移到其他地区。</span></span></span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　思考转型，一定要跳出国内的局限。虽然东、中、西部工资水平存在差距，但中、西部地区的大部分劳动力已经转移到东部沿海地区，再加上这几年交通基础设施改善得非?？?，国内地区间工资差异有限，转移空间不大，到海外去是一个必然选择。劳动密集型产业逐步向海外转移，也符合历史和经济规律。日本在上个世纪60年代曾将劳动密集型的纺织、电子加工等产业转移到“亚洲四小龙”，这些国家在上世纪80年代又把劳动密集型的加工环节用来料加工的方式转移到中国大陆，这种转移支撑了日本和“亚洲四小龙”的产业升级和转型。</span></span></span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　从劳动力承载能力来看，非洲是中国劳动密集型产业转移的最佳选择。中国是一个拥有13亿人口的大国，加工制造业中吸纳了大量工人，有研究显示，国内加工制造业雇佣的劳动力应有1.5亿人之多。</span></span></span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　非洲拥有10亿人口，目前平均收入水平是中国的1/4，很多国家的收入水平甚至不及中国的1/10。转移到非洲，可以增加中国劳动密集型产业进入“微笑曲线”两端的可能性，并获得最大的加工制造业基地。转移到非洲对中国的产业转型也会有很大好处，生产规模扩大后对中国机械制造业和相关产品的需求会有所增长。</span></span></span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　根据我在世界银行工作期间所做的研究，2010年，非洲国家埃塞俄比亚制鞋业的工资约为中国的1/8到1/10，大约是越南的一半，而其工人劳动生产率大约是中国的70％，与越南相当，所以埃塞俄比亚在制鞋业上具有很强的竞争力。可是2010年，中国约有制鞋工人1900万，越南有120万，而埃塞俄比亚8400万人口中只有8000名制鞋工人。</span></span></span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　我在世行担任高级副行长时，曾于2011年3月访问埃塞俄比亚，对前总理梅莱斯指出该国具有承接中国制鞋业的潜力，如果能够像中国国内发展工业园区的方式一样提供一站式服务，由省长甚至总理亲自招商，派部长作为项目负责人来帮助这些企业解决投资上的具体困难，埃塞俄比亚等非洲国家应该可以很快把中国劳动密集型产业吸引过来。</span></span></span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　中国民营企业华坚鞋业就是梅莱斯总理接受建议引入该国的。目前华坚在埃塞俄比亚已雇佣2500人，并准备设立工业园区，在未来3—5年内发展成制鞋业产业集群，计划雇佣3万人，而整个集群可能雇佣多达10万人。除此之外，福田最近也宣布将在乌干达生产商用汽车，北京汽车则在南非开建了一个小巴工厂。越来越多的中国企业正在选择把生产向非洲转移。</span></span></span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:宋体;"><span style="line-height:200%;"><span style="font-size:14px;">　　非洲可以成为中国劳动密集型产业走出去的“蓝海”，可以为中国劳动密集型产业第二次腾飞提供足够大的载体，也能给中国产业升级和产业转型提供巨大契机。“一花独放不是春，百花齐放春满园”。劳动密集型产业向非洲转移，不仅对中国经济有利，还能够促进非洲的经济发展，提高非洲人民的生活水平，使中国能够贡献于人类的共同发展。</span></span></span></p> <p> </p> </div> <p class="Editor">编辑：罗韦 </p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：中国产业转型劳动密集型</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a href="/index.shtml" target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a href="/index.shtml"><img src="/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> <li><a target="_blank" 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