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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </span><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="fr">分享到：<img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/fx.jpg" /> </span> </div> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="text_box"> <p align="center"> <P><STRONG>　　原题：2014年中东：忧患与希望</STRONG></P> <P>　　叙利亚冲突、伊朗核谈判、埃及乱局、巴勒斯坦与以色列和谈……</P> <P>　　诸多中东热点问题牵动着世界的神经。2014年中东局势将如何发展？</P> <P sizset="false" sizcache06765919915443613="23 14 5">　　在挑战中寻找希望 </P> <P>　　2013年，伊核谈判与叙利亚?；鱿忠恍┗浠?，各方能否抓住有利时机，在2014年取得新进展值得关注。</P> <P>　　经过密集谈判，伊朗和伊核问题六国(美国、英国、法国、俄罗斯、中国和德国)于2013年11月24日在日内瓦就伊朗核问题达成第一阶段协议，打破了伊核谈判持续10年无进展的僵局，标志着通过外交手段解决伊核问题迈出了重要一步。</P> <P>　　然而，2013年12月中旬，美国以规避对伊制裁、为伊核计划提供支持为由，将一批公司和个人列入美国制裁黑名单，给伊核问题前景蒙上阴影。</P> <P>　　尽管如此，解决伊核问题的大趋势目前没有改变。根据伊朗与六国达成的第一阶段协议，未来6个月里伊朗将采取一系列措施，西方也将减轻对伊制裁。对伊核问题而言，最大考验是各方的诚意与互信。</P> <P>　　2014年，叙利亚化学武器销毁问题有望得到解决。尽管由于一些技术原因，原定于2013年年底前将首批化学制剂运送出叙利亚的工作被迫延期，但各方正朝着既定目标稳步前进，在今年年中完成叙化学武器的销毁工作充满希望。</P> <P>　　在解决叙利亚冲突问题上，将于1月下旬举行的叙利亚问题第二次日内瓦会议广受国际社会关注。目前，叙反对派参会人选能否确定、伊朗能否与会，令人关注，这两大因素或将影响这一会议的进程和结局。</P> <P>　　分析人士认为，叙利亚?；中?年，对该国社会、经济造成极大伤害。同时，叙危机外溢风险凸显，国际社会劝和促谈的呼声和努力一直没有停止。叙各方如能实现谈判，该国才有望恢复和平。</P> <P>　　在困境中寻求解决</P> <P>　　就任美国国务卿不足一年，克里10次造访中东，为推动巴勒斯坦和以色列和谈煞费苦心，但巴以谈判至今收效甚微，巴以在今年4月前达成最终地位协议的前景堪忧。</P> <P>　　时隔3年，巴以双方在2013年7月底恢复新一轮和谈。但从目前来看，和谈进程障碍重重，双方在耶路撒冷地位、边界划分、非法犹太人定居点前途、难民安置等“核心”问题上未有进展，而以色列的新举动对巴以和平又构成威胁。</P> <P>　　以色列部长级立法委员会日前批准了一项法案，规定位于约旦河谷的犹太人定居点属于以色列领土。此举引发巴方强烈抗议，巴勒斯坦国总统阿巴斯强调，约旦河谷归属问题是巴勒斯坦的“红线”。</P> <P>　　观察人士认为，通过上述法案，以色列将进一步蚕食巴勒斯坦人土地。持续半个多世纪的巴以纷争很大程度上表现在对土地的争夺上，如果以色列执意强占巴方土地，即便国际社会付出再多努力，巴以冲突也难有化解之道。</P> <P>　　在动荡中追寻稳定</P> <P>　　1月中旬，埃及将举行宪法草案公投，这是埃及政治过渡进程中的重要一步。一旦该宪法草案获通过，埃及临时总统曼苏尔将决定总统和议会选举的顺序及时间，埃及有望在今年下半年举行议会和总统选举。</P> <P>　　不过，刚被埃及政府定为恐怖组织的穆斯林兄弟会恐怕不会善罢甘休，可能会采取行动阻挠公投。埃及存在爆发激烈对抗、局势再次动荡的风险。</P> <P>　　此外，南苏丹冲突不断加剧，并蔓延至全国半数以上省份。联合国难民署发表声明说，南苏丹去年12月15日发生武装冲突以来已导致约19万人被迫逃离家园。</P> <P>　　分析人士认为，这场冲突如果得不到妥善解决，南苏丹有可能面临更大的?；?。目前，南苏丹总统基尔和反政府武装领导人、前副总统马沙尔已同意停战，并指定谈判人员监督和实施停战计划，这为解决南苏丹危机带来曙光。</P> <P>　　在中东，面临困局的不仅限于上述国家，突尼斯组阁风波，利比亚与伊拉克的安全局势，黎巴嫩与以色列的边境冲突等，将给2014年的中东局势增添变数。(记者陈勇李建民)</P> </div> <p class="Editor"></p> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="Paging"> </div> <p class="Keyword">关键词：</p> <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_15"><a target="_blank" class="more mtb_14">更多</a><span id="i2i2jyu4k" class="t" id="a3"><a ><img src="http://www.rmzxb.com.cn/images/xg_t1.jpg" /></a></span></h1> <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="pa_0_5_0_10"> <ul class="Related_ul bh_150"> </ul> </div> <div style="height:40px"></div>  <div id="i2i2jyu4k" class="advContent"><div style="height:40px"></div><script charset="gbk" src="http://p.tanx.com/ex?i=mm_58500226_6900940_24396084"></script></div>  <h1 class="pv_title_2 mt_55"><a target="_blank" class="more 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